💰 Punts: 25+ Match Fouls Committed, 29+ Match Fouls Committed, 33+ Match Fouls Committed
📗 Bookie: SkyBet
🎲 Odds: 1.91 (10/11), 4.33 (10/3) & 12.00 (11/1)
⚽️ Game: Burnley vs. Preston

The Lancashire rivals both currently occupy first and second in the fouls committed table. Burnley committing 15.6 fouls per game, just edging out Preston North End who are committing 15.3 fouls per game. Although Preston rank mid-table for being fouled (11.4) and Burnley are 22nd in that metric (9.4). I’m hoping the aggressive nature of each side outweighs their possible lack of flair players who draw fouls, the derby day atmosphere should hopefully help us as well. Referee Gavin Ward has officiated 6 games in The Championship so far this season and is averaging 24.5 fouls per game. As well as taking charge of Man Utd vs Barnsley in the Carabao Cup, blowing his whistle for 27 fouls in that game.

Both sides have faced Blackburn in a Lancashire derby already this season, and those games have had a bit of bite in them to say the least, just ask Owen Beck!

There were 34 match fouls when Burnley hosted Blackburn. Burnley picked up 4 yellows whilst Blackburn picked up 8 yellows and a red card. Makhtar Gueye picking up a second yellow card. When Preston hosted Blackburn, there were 26 match fouls, however, both teams received a red card with Preston picking up a further 4 yellows and Blackburn picking up 5 yellows themselves. Sam Greenwood and Owen Beck were both sent off, with Milutin Osmajic recently receiving a lengthy ban and a hefty fine for biting Owen Beck’s neck.

• 25+ Match Fouls Committed @ 1.91 (10/11)

• 29+ Match Fouls Committed @ 4.33 (10/3)

• 33+ Match Fous Committed @ 12.00 (11/1)

Be a fool not to have a punt on the lottery tickets as well really…

Both teams to commit 16+ fouls is priced at 23.00 (22/1) and both teams to commit 18+ fouls is 96.00 (95/1) through SkyBet’s BuildABet feature.

💰 Punts: Nathaniel Phillips Over 0.5 Shots & Over 1.5 Shots
📗 Bookie: Bet365
🎲 Odds: 2.25 (5/4) & 8.00 (7/1)
⚽️ Game: Derby vs. QPR

Nat Phillips made his first start of the season in the midweek defeat to Sunderland. The former Liverpool defender registered 4 shots in his 75 minutes of playing time after a bit of fatigue.

Derby county boss Paul Warne said “Nat hasn’t played many minutes obviously so his body started fatiguing and started cramping. That’s a sign that if you don’t get off then you will come off in a different way with a much bigger problem. I took him off. He will be okay but I’ve got a couple of other that I am hopeful on, but I will find out more today.”

Sounds like the Rams’ gaffer was protecting Phillips rather than anything serious, so hopefully he grabs his second start on Saturday and brings his shooting boots again. Or getting his head on the end of a corner or two will do the trick!

• Nathaniel Phillips Over 0.5 Shots @ 2.25 (5/4) - Bet365

• Nathaniel Phillips Over 1.5 Shots @ 8.00 (7/1) - Bet365

💰 Punts: Uros Racic To Be Booked
📗 Bookie: Bet365
🎲 Odds: 9.00 (8/1)
⚽️ Game: West Brom vs. Millwall

Serbian midfielder Uros Racic has started 3 games in his 5 game long Baggies career thus far. He’s been carded in 2 of those 3 starts and at 9.00 (8/1) he looks too big of a price to turn down vs. Millwall this Saturday. Definitely one of the puntier bets I’ve took this weekend, but the head to head off the ball handbags incident with George Saville as both pick up a yellow card seems to have already happened in my head!

Punt: Uros Racic To Be Booked @ 9.00 (8/1) - Bet365

💰 Punts: Federico Valverde To Be Booked, Valverde & Alex Baena To Be Booked
📗 Bookie: Bet365
🎲 Odds: 7.50 (13/2) & 17.00 (16/1)
⚽️ Game: Real Madrid vs. Villarreal

Federico Valverde has picked up 4 yellow cards in 12 games for club and country this season, meanwhile Alex Baena is a card magnet and has racked up 10+ yellow cards for the past 3 seasons.

I was on this exact bet last December, and neither won! Keep fackin’ punting as they say, nothing has changed regarding my reasoning. If you’re interested you can read Federico Valverde’s article with Players Tribune here

“After a match in April against Villareal, things hit rock bottom. Everyone knows the headlines. They know both sides of the “story.” I don’t want to bring up these ugly things again. All I want to say is this….

On a football pitch, you can call me almost anything, and it doesn’t bother me. I am Uruguayan, for God’s sake. But there are certain lines that you do not cross. Not as a footballer, but as another human being. 

Speak about my family, and it’s not football anymore. 

A line was crossed that day.”

Baena went off injured after 29 minutes last December and was then banned for the reverse fixture in May. Let’s hope there’s still some tension between the two and they have it out on Saturday night!

• Federico Valverde To Be Booked @ 7.50 (13/2)

• Federico Valverde & Alex Baena To Be Booked @ 17.00 (16/1)

Cheeky Punts

• Burnley vs. Preston: Over 4 Cards for Burnley & Over 4 Cards for Preston @ 81.00 (80/1) & Over 5 Cards for Burnley & Over 5 Cards for Preston @ 326.00 (325/1) - Bet365

• Derby vs. QPR: Nathaniel Phillips Over 2.5 Shots & Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 51.00 (50/1) - Bet365

• Real Madrid vs. Villarreal: Federico Valverde To Be Sent Off @ 81.00 (80/1) Federico Valverde & Alex Baena To Be Sent Off @ 1001.00 (1000/1) - Bet365, I’ve requested this with William Hill and usually they’re better priced, I’d expect around 1200/1 with them and similar with BoyleSports when they add player cards.