Weekend Bets 25th - 26th February

Manchester United v Newcastle United - Carabao Cup Final. Sunday, 26th February. 16:30.

Newcastle United reached their first major cup final since 1999 after overcoming Southampton in the two-legged semi-final tie with relative ease. Bruno Guimaraes returns after serving a suspension but Newcastle will be without first-choice goalkeeper Nick Pope after his red card last weekend v Liverpool, with Loris Karius expected to deputise in between the sticks. It feels like this cup final could make or break Newcastle’s season after a relatively poor run of performances since the turn of the year. Manchester United’s season has been a bit of a rollercoaster but Erik Ten Hag now appears to be getting the best out of his team since Messi’s apprentice was shipped off to Saudi Arabia after that Piers Morgan interview. The cup final will be Man Utd’s fifth game in two weeks due to their impressive two-legged Europa league play-off round victory over Barcelona. Marcus Rashford is a man in ridiculous goalscoring form, he’s scored 6 goals in his last 6 games and has an incredible 16 goals in 18 appearances in all competitions since the resumption of domestic football after the World Cup break.

It’s hard to predict how Erik Ten Hag is going to line up in the forward areas with a timely return to fitness for Jadon Sancho and Antony, Garnacho trying to Slytherin to the starting XI with his new Draco Malfoy haircut & Weghorst looking like that Everton fan who was subbed on to score a penalty in their friendly v Dynamo Kyiv last summer. With so many left-wing options, Newcastle’s Saudi owners may feel slightly threatened and ask Beh-Eddie Howe to make sure that heads will roll. Newcastle’s captain will be the man tasked with dealing with the left-winger and opposition right-backs have racked up the tackles so far in February; Kounde (3), Castagne (4), Ayling (8), (11) & Clyne (4). I’m banking on Trippier mistiming a tackle or two and getting his name jotted down in Coote’s notebook. Kieran Tripper to be carded at 7.00 (6/1) with William Hill looks quite appealing. Trippier has picked up 5 cards in 23 EPL appearances this season and a further 2 in the Carabao Cup. His cards have come in games where his opponents are very direct with the likes of Zaha, Gnonto & Luis Diaz drawing cards from him. I could see Trippier taking a professional foul and preventing his opponent from getting the better of him. 6/1 feels like a decent price with the odds almost half that elsewhere.

However, the game ends up playing out I can see Newcastle picking up a few cards. Whether it’s time wasting and running down the clock with a lead to hold on to for their first major domestic trophy since the FA Cup in 1955 or letting their frustrations boil over with rash tackles and dissent as their chances of making history fade away. Something along the lines of Dan Burn calling David Coote a cheating manc, ratatouille looking cu.. sounds plausible. Newcastle to receive over 2 cards is 2/1 on bet365 through bet builder. Newcastle have been awarded 42 yellow cards and 1 red card in 23 PL games and 8 yellows and 1 red in 6 Carabao Cup games with the majority of these coming in the latter stages of the competition, QF v Leicester and SF v Southampton. 3 yellows v Leicester, 3 yellows v Southampton (1st leg) & 1 red card v Southampton (2nd leg).

• Recommended bets -
  Kieran Trippier to be carded @ 7.00 (6/1)
  Newcastle to receive over 2 cards @ 3.00 (2/1)

• Bookie -
  Kieran Trippier to be carded - William Hill.
  Newcastle to receive over 2 cards - bet365.

• Confidence -
  Kieran Trippier to be carded 1/3.
  Newcastle to receive over 2 cards 2/3.

Tottenham v Chelsea - Premier League. Sunday, 26th February. 13:30.

It seems like a lifetime ago since Thomas Tuchel and Antonio Conte did their best Froch v Groves: The Gloves Are Off handshake impression but apparently, it was the second game of this season. Now, Tuchel’s on a gap year finding himself in Australia and Conte’s on his deathbed back in Italy so round 2 of the handshake handbags might be off the cards. Cristian Stellini is expected to continue in caretaker charge of Spurs whilst Conte recovers. Graham Potter is hoping an American tycoon isn’t as trigger-happy as his Russian oligarch predecessor. I’m sure there’s a joke in there somewhere…

Chelsea’s January arrivals have been a bit of a mixed bag. Mykhailo Mudryk has been doing his best Shevchenko impersonation barring a half an hour cameo v Liverpool since his signing & Joao Felix is the best player ever, probably. The Portuguese forward has registered 6, 3, 4 & 3 shots in 4 games since joining Chelsea and has played the full 90 in all of them except when committing GBH and getting sent for an early bath. Bet365 has him priced up at 2.25 (5/4) to have over 2.5 shots and continue his recent trend of having more shots than that lad on the greatest weekend of his liiiiiife.

• Recommended bet - Joao Felix to have over 2.5 shots @ 2.25 (5/4)

• Bookie - Bet365

• Confidence - 3/3

#CheekyPunt - West Ham v Nottingham Forest - Premier League. Saturday, 25th February. 15:00.

Nottingham Forest are somehow sitting 13th in the Premier League table despite being relegated in October and West Ham find themselves in the bottom three after a dismal season so far, they are favourites for the mighty UEFA Conference League though!

After the large shower of shite Forest signed last summer, their winter transfer business appears to be having a much better impact on the pitch with Keylor Navas impressing in recent weeks. A win for Forest here could boost their survival chances massively by increasing the gap between themselves and West Ham to 8 points. If Forest find themselves ahead, I’m hoping for a repeat of the reverse fixture in August where Dean Henderson was booked for time-wasting in the 75th minute in a 1-0 victory. Bet365 have Nottingham Forest to win and Keylor Navas to be booked priced at 65.00 (64/1). Sneaky little fuckers have fixed the algorithm so we can’t add over 0 cards for a few more shillings. The best a man can get (Jarred Gillett) is the man in the middle here and he’s booked 2 keepers for time-wasting in his 11 EPL appointments this season (Nick Pope v Tottenham & more recently David Raya v Bournemouth).

• Recommended bet - Nottingham Forest to win & Keylor Navas to be booked @ 65.00 (64/1)

• Bookie - Bet365

• Confidence - 0/3. Absolutely no fucking chance, odds are class though. Worth a Lady Godiva.

Franco’s Feature - Schalke v VFB Stuttgart. German Bundesliga. Saturday, 25th February. 17:30.

Franco is a fellow degenerate punter who ignores his wife and child to punt the bollocks off anything and everything, whether it’s A-League footy on a Friday morning or Mexican corners at midnight on a Tuesday. He fackin’ loves it. He’s joined us for this weekend’s newsletter and has a little Bundesliga shot ladder for us to climb (or have the bucket kicked from beneath us halfway through).

Portuguese wide forward Bastiao Gil Dias has impressed since making his January switch from Benfica to Stuttgart. In both of his starts since joining the Bundesliga, Gil Dias has registered 3 shots with at least one shot on target on each occasion including scoring v Koln last time out in an impressive, much-needed win. In addition, Dias had 1 shot as a second-half substitute v Werder Bremen and helped turned their DFB Pokal tie around v Paderborn in the last 10 minutes with a goal and 2 shots. I’ll be covering three shot-related Dias angles here. 2+ shots will be my main play and I’ll be staggering stakes on 3+ shots and a bet builder play with 3+ shots & 1+ shot on target which has landed in his 2 Stuttgart starts so far.

Bets:
Bastiao Gil Dias - Over 1.5 shots @ 2.62 (13/8)
Bastiao Gil Dias - Over 2.5 shots @ 6.00 (5/1)
Bastiao Gil Dias - Over 2.5 shots & Over 0.5 shots on target @ 11.00 (10/1) via Bet Builder.

Bookie: Bet365

Good luck if you’re tailing any bets! ✈️ 🍀

Jake Paul v Tommy Fury. Sunday, February 26th 18:30.

Fuck me, am I really writing about this? If you didn’t quite get your fix of sports washing in the EFL Cup final, BT Sport BOX OFFICE are shoving “one of the most highly anticipated boxing fights of the year” down our throats. Great! A YouTuber and a Love Island runner-up sharing a boxing ring for potentially 8 rounds worth of action will be extremely painful.

Fury has basically fought a bunch of tradesmen so far to make his 8-0 record looks more impressive than what it actually is and he’s hardly impressed in the process whether in the amateur ranks or since turning pro. Big John, Tyson and co have promised to banish Tommy into a gypsy exile from the fighting family if he loses but the reality is if he does lose, his career will be as dead as that dog him and Molly-Mae bought the other year.

Jake Paul on the other hand is a YouTuber with limited boxing experience, fighting retired NBA players and veteran MMA superstars Silva and Woodley. Surprisingly, I don’t think Paul gets the credit he deserves given he’s potentially on a par with Fury. Although neither are going to do anything of note titles-wise in their career, this is a split-em with both fighters being relatively unknown. Who knows what will actually happen in this absolute money-spinner of a bout? It wouldn’t surprise me if it ended up as a draw to set up the rematch nicely and make sure Baby Bambi never has to work a day in her life, starring in Love Island 2043. However, I’m not gonna sit on the fence here and I’m siding with Tommy Fury by decision or technical decision which is best priced @ 5.50 (9/2) with BetVictor & Betfred. Largely 5.00 (4/1) everywhere else.