💰 Punt: Auston Trusty 3+ Tackles
📗 Bookie: SkyBet
🎲 Odds: 2.63 (13/8)
⚽️ Game: Aston Villa vs. Sheffield United

Jack Robinson served his one-match suspension in the Blades’ 2-0 defeat at Stamford Bridge. I’m hoping this means Chris Wilder will revert to the back 4 that got him up and running with a 1-0 win over Brentford. Auston Trusty who played centrally in Robinson’s absence was left-back in what was only their 2nd PL win of the season, committing 4 fouls and just the 1 solitary tackle. So, why bet on his tackles?

Because of that man above!

Since Leon Bailey returned to the Villains XI at the start of the month vs Bournemouth, left-sided defenders have put up some huge tackles numbers against him:

• 03/12/23 vs Bournemouth - Milos Kerkez, 4 tackles

• 06/12/23 vs Man City - Josko Gvardiol, 8 tackles

• 09/12/23 vs Arsenal - Oleksandr Zinchenko, 6 tackles

• 17/12/23 vs Brentford - Saman Ghoddos, 8 tackles (Bailey was a sub for this match, coming on in the 65th minute)

Hopefully the Brentford game was just Emery rotating his squad due to the hectic schedule over the festive period. Teams are massively outperforming their tackles average for the season when playing Villa regardless so Auston Trusty might make 3 tackles even if he gets put in goal.

Punt: Auston Trusty 3+ Tackles @ 2.63 (13/8) with SkyBet

Here’s some pointless stats that may help you make a bet builder for tonight’s action based purely off recency bias from this month more or less. Or you might just scroll on and ignore. Either way, don’t shoot the messenger!

Opposition team tackles vs Villa in December:

• Bournemouth 25 tackles vs Villa - PL average 18.9

• Man City 19 tackles vs Villa - PL average 14.3

• Arsenal 31 tackles vs Villa - PL average 16.3

• Brentford 33 tackles vs Villa - PL average 18.5

Sheff Utd team tackles under Wilder in his 3 games:

• 20 tackles vs Liverpool

• 14 tackles vs Brentford

• 28 tackles vs Chelsea

Throw-ins total numbers under Wilder:

• 50 vs Liverpool (21 Sheff Utd - 29 Liverpool)

• 58 vs Brentford (27 Sheff Utd - 31 Brentford)

• 28 vs Chelsea (20 Chelsea - 8 Sheff Utd)

Over 32.5 throw-ins in the match is priced at 2.00 (1/1) with Bet365 and to be honest, it’s probably rightly priced. Aston Villa likely have about 75% possession with their centre-backs racking up 100+ passes each, BUT WHAT IF THEY DON’T? Don’t do it to yourself, punters!

Friday Night Football will also see Cameron Archer return to his boyhood club for the first time as an opposition player. After the way they banished his childhood hero Ashley Young to Everton, will Archer take it upon himself to get his revenge in the form of a goal and/or yellow card? No, he won’t. But, he might!

💰 Punt: James Garner Over 0.5 Shots On Target
📗 Bookie: Bet365
🎲 Odds: 3.40 (12/5)
⚽️ Game: Tottenham vs. Everton

Sean Dyche confirmed Everton will be without their top scorer Abdoulaye Doucoure against Tottenham in his press conference. It’s a massive blow for the toffees and they’ll need someone to step up in the Malian’s absence.

My guess of DycheBall’s thinking is the following XI in a 4-4-1-1 formation:

Pickford; Patterson, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko(?); Harrison, Onana, Gueye, McNeil; Garner; Calvert-Lewin.

Mykolenko is ‘touch and go’ which could see Dyche revert to a back 5 with McNeil as a wing-back. I’m just not sure he’ll want Michael Keane and his rigger boots defending the likes of Son and Richarlison.

Regardless of the formation, Everton will be looking to punish Spurs on the counter-attack and I think James Garner will get the nod as the midfielder with the most freedom to support Calvert-Lewin. His shots record is nothing to write home about but he’ll be an option for right-footed free-kicks if within shooting distance.

Punt: James Garner Over 0.5 Shots On Target @ 3.40 (12/5) with Bet365

💰 Punt: Darwin Nunez 2+ & 3+ Tackles
📗 Bookie: SkyBet
🎲 Odds: 5.25 (17/4) & 20.00 (19/1)
⚽️ Game: Liverpool vs. Arsenal

When these two sides met back in April, Arsenal were on the cusp of winning the Premier League title whilst Liverpool were making a late attempt at qualifying for the Champions League after a poor season by their standards.

Arsenal blew Liverpool away in the first 40 minutes and looked to be all but confirmed league champions. Then Granit Xhaka had some handbags with Trent, Andy Robertson got booked for getting elbowed by a linesman, Mo Salah missed a penalty, Firmino equalised, Liverpool somehow didn’t win the game & it was all bloody Rob Holding’s fault. Hopefully another dramatic affair on Saturday night!

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This is a bet based solely on Nunez starting on the left-wing, if it’s not a front 3 of Salah, Gakpo & Nunez, I’d recommend cashing out. Of course if he doesn’t start all, I’d advise cashing it out too.

He hasn’t had over 1 tackle in the Premier League this season, so why the fuck am I betting on him? Good question.

He’s started 19 times as a left-winger across his career for Liverpool, Benfica and Uruguay. Making 18 successful tackles in that time (0.9 per game) from 33 total attempted tackles. Wednesday night in the Carabao Cup vs. West Ham saw him start left-wing where he made 5 successful tackles from 7 attempted. A high press winning the ball off Ben White a few times with a lot of tracking back to double up on Bukayo Saka and that’s all she wrote!

Punts:

• Darwin Nunez 2+ Tackles @ 5.25 (17/4) with SkyBet

• Darwin Nunez 3+ Tackles @ 20.00 (19/1) with SkyBet

💰 Punt: Jay Stansfield To Be Booked
📗 Bookie: Bet365
🎲 Odds: 4.75 (15/4)
⚽️ Game: Plymouth vs. Birmingham

Jay Stansfield hasn’t been booked since October, however, he does commit the most fouls per game (1.7) for Wayne Rooney’s bluenoses. He was booked 4 times in his first 7 appearances for Birmingham in The Championship and now he faces the side he made his debut against in Plymouth Argyle.

I’m sure it’s a fixture that holds a lot of personal motivation for Stansfield, who grew up an Exeter fan. Whilst on loan at Exeter last year, there was some vile chants from the Plymouth fans regarding Stansfield’s deceased father, Adam.

“Shortly after the fixture, club staff were made aware of footage appearing to show a small number of Argyle supporters engaging in disgusting and tasteless chants relating to former Exeter City striker Adam Stansfield.”

You can read more about that by clicking here if you wish.

Punt: Jay Stansfield To Be Booked @ 4.75 (15/4) with Bet365.

#CheekyPunts

• Over 24.5 Tackles for Sheff Utd & Over 19.5 Throw Ins for Aston Villa @ 8.50 (15/2) - Bet365
  Over 26.5 Tackles for Sheff Utd & Over 25.5 Throw Ins for Aston Villa @ 51.00 (50/1) - Bet365

• Jay Stansfield To Score 2 Or More & To Be Booked @ 90.00 (89/1) - Bet365

• Endo, Tsimikas & Zinchenko To Be Booked @ 111.00 (110/1) - Bet365