Bullet Point Bets

• Best Bet: Hartlepool vs Crawley - Each Team Over 19.5 Booking Points @ 2.80 (9/5) - William Hill
  Each Team Over 29.5 Booking Points @ 7.50 (13/2) - William Hill

• Crystal Palace vs Everton: James Garner to commit 2+ fouls @ 3.60 (13/5) - Betfair/Paddy Power

• Heerenveen vs FC Emmen: Jeremy Antonisse over 1.5 shots @ 2.62 (13/8) - Bet365
  Jeremy Antonisse over 2.5 shots & over 0.5 shots on target @ 11.00 (10/1) - Bet365

• Bournemouth vs West Ham: Joe Rothwell 50+ passes @ 2.80 (9/5) & Joe Rothwell 70+ passes @ 15.00 (14/1) - Betfair/Paddy Power

• Newcastle vs Tottenham: Both Teams To Receive 2+ Cards @ 2.20 (6/5) - Bet365

• #CheekyPunts
  Over 2 Cards For Newcastle & Over 2 Cards For Tottenham @ 7.50 doubled with Jeremy Antonisse Over 2.5 Shots & Over 0.5 Shots On Target @ 11.00 to create a bet builder double with odds of 82.50 (81.5/1) - Bet365
  Romero & Joelinton to be sent off @ 751.00 (750/1) - Bet365

Hartlepool vs Crawley, English League 2, Saturday 22nd April, 15:00.

Best Bet: Each Team Over 19.5 Booking Points @ 2.80 (9/5) - William Hill

Bet: Each Team Over 29.5 Booking Points @ 7.50 (13/2) - William Hill via #BuildYourOdds

Referee: Sam Barrott

The importance of this League 2 basement battle was perfectly summarised by Not The Top 20 Pod on Twitter as shown above.

Stats don’t back the bet up and the referee isn’t the greatest. These sides are 14th and 19th in the discipline standings in League 2 but the nature of the game and the implications that come with the result should hopefully result in a flurry of cards. 2.80 (9/5) with William Hill via #BuildYourOdds for both teams to have over 19.5 booking points just looks too big. The same bet is 2.25 (5/4) with SkyBet. Similarly, I’ll be having a smaller play on 30 booking points for both teams in the match, so, over 29.5 booking points for each team via the same method on William Hill is priced at an enticing 7.50 (13/2) which is 4/1 on SkyBet.

Crystal Palace vs Everton, English Premier League, Saturday 22nd April, 15:00.

Bet: James Garner To Commit 2+ fouls @ 3.60 (13/5) - Betfair/Paddy Power

Since Roy Hodgson’s arrival back at Palace, he’s steered them clear of the relegation places taking the maximum 9 points from his 3 games in charge. Hodgson looks to have reignited Eberechi Eze’s Crystal Palace career, he’s been a standout performer so far under Big Woy with 3 goals from 9 shots, 8 tackles & he’s been fouled 9 times (4, 3 & 2) over the last three games under Hodgson, operating in a deeper central midfield role. He should find himself up against the likes of James Garner & Idrissa Gueye here with Doucoure suspended & Onana facing a late fitness test. If Garner does get the nod to start, the price for the former Manchester United youngster to commit a couple of fouls looks appealing at 3.60 (13/5) with Betfair/Paddy Power. 

Garner is averaging 2 fouls per 90 mins across his limited 295 minutes data sample for Everton so far in the PL. Over his career, he averages 1.3 fouls per 90 minutes he plays. I would advise either waiting for team news at 2 pm on Saturday before placing or if you are to place before, make sure you’re around to cash out before kick-off if he doesn’t end up starting.

Bet: Jeremy Antonisse Over 1.5 Shots @ 2.62 (13/8) - Bet365

Jeremy Antonisse Over 2.5 Shots & Over 0.5 Shots On Target @ 11.00 (10/1) - Bet365 via Bet Builder

I could sit here and pretend to a load of strangers over the internet that I’m a huge FC Emmen fan and that Jeremy Antonisse is a top player, but I don’t have a scooby doo. Looks good to bet on though!

Antonisse is averaging 2.1 shots per game but this is from only 549 minutes of football. He averages 3.1 shots per 90 mins he plays. He’s had 2+ shots in 6 out of his 7 starts and he’s hit 3+ shots in 4 out of 7 starts. He had 3 shots and scored last week vs Ajax. Impressive shooting figures for Emmen since joining on loan from PSV in January.

The 2.62 (13/8) for this random dude from Curacao to have a couple of shots looks like a lovely price based on numbers alone. Who knows if he’s any good? Turn the bet365 winning bets notifications on and watch the winnings roll in at sometime on Saturday night, maybe.

Having a smaller-sized bet on young Jezza Antonisse to have 3 shots with 1 of them hitting the target @ 11.00 (10/1) via Bet365’s bet builder. If you can score against Ajax, you can surely score a hat-trick against Heerenveen. No disrespect intended to the legend that is Afonso Alves.

Bournemouth vs West Ham, English Premier League, Sunday 23rd April, 14:00.

Bet: Joe Rothwell To Attempt 50 Or More Passes @ 2.80 (9/5) & 70 Or More Passes @ 15.00 (14/1) Betfair/Paddy Power

Bournemouth could see a fair share of the possession on Sunday against West Ham. This will be West Ham’s fifth game in two weeks with a tough midweek fixture against Liverpool still to come. Ideally, we’d want West Ham to take an early first-half lead here, especially for the 70+ passes bet to stand a chance, but with the way I see the game panning out. I think West Ham will be happy enough without the ball and look to hurt Bournemouth on the counterattack with the likes of Benrahma & Bowen.

Passing totals from starting central midfielders against West Ham on the weekend after a Europa Conference League game:

21/08/2022: Brighton - MacAllister 69, Caicedo 45 & Gross 48
28/08/2022: Aston Villa - McGinn 67, Kamara 72 & Luiz 50
18/09/2022: Everton - Iwobi 56, Gueye 61, Onana 36
09/10/2022: Fulham - Reed 42 & Palhinha 60
16/10/2022: Southampton - Ward Prowse 37
30/10/2022: Man Utd - Eriksen 74 & Casemiro 64
06/11/2022: Crystal Palace - Olise 66, Doucoure 52, Schlupp 62
12/03/2023: Aston Villa - Luiz 72 & McGinn 52
16/04/2023: Arsenal - Xhaka 58, Partey 46, Odegaard 54

Joe Rothwell had 47 passes in a 3-2 victory over Tottenham last week. Bournemouth were away from home and led 2-1 from the 51st to the 88th minute. West Ham have been a bit bipolar lately but if the team that beat Fulham despite having a 23% possession turn up, Rothwell to have 50+ passes priced at 2.80 (9/5) stands a great chance. Again, a smaller tickle on 70+ passes at 15.00 (14/1) is worth a bet at the odds on offer. Both with Betfair/Paddy Power.

Newcastle vs Tottenham, English Premier League, Sunday 23rd April, 14:00.

Bet: Both Teams To Receive 2+ Cards @ 2.20 (6/5) - Bet365

Referee: David Coote

With Champions League qualification at stake, this looks like the perfect time for Coote to dish out 5 yellows for each team. The last time he took charge of a Newcastle game was the Carabao Cup final where he showed 9 cards, 6 for Man Utd & 3 for Newcastle. The last time he took charge of a Tottenham game, he sent off Abdoulaye Doucoure & Lucas Moura. Omen for red each? Probably.

Again, no real stats stand out to bore you all to death with. Just the importance of the game which should see an increase in cards, or so you’d think. Always helps a card bet when there are a few idiots on the pitch like Romero & Joelinton. Dan Burn has picked up 4 of his 22 (23 counting the card after the whistle vs Chelsea) PL yellow cards vs Tottenham. The three players mentioned could combine for a nicely priced player card treble with Bet365 but I have a feeling Eddie Howe might use Matt Targett at left-back after last week’s dismal display vs Aston Villa.

#CheekyPunts

• Over 2 Cards For Newcastle & Over 2 Cards For Tottenham @ 7.50 doubled with Jeremy Antonisse 3 Shots & 1 Shot On Target @ 11.00 to create a double at odds of 82.50 (81.5/1) - Bet365

• Cristian Romero & de Lira Joelinton both to be sent off @ 751.00 (750/1) - Bet365