Lazio v Lecce, Italian Serie A, Friday 12th May, 19:45.

Bet - Valentin Gendrey To Commit 2 Or More Fouls @ 5.50 (9/2)
Bookie - Betfair/Paddy Power

Who?

Exactly.

Lecce right-back Valentin Gendrey hasn’t committed many fouls (0.7 per game) but he does have high tackle numbers (2.5 per game). This bet is more based around the fact he should find himself up against Mattia Zaccagni, the Italian winger is fouled 3.5 times per game on average & 3.9 times per 90 mins in Serie A this season. The 1.83 (5/6) for Gendrey to commit at least 1 foul with Betfair/Paddy Power almost looks too good to be true. I’ve sided with the higher odds play and will be backing Gendrey to commit 2 or more fouls at an enticing price of 5.50 (9/2) with Betfair/Paddy Power.

Gendrey has committed 2+ fouls in 3 of his last 7 games. He’s also committed 0 fouls in 3 of his last 7 for context. The opposition’s RB or RWB vs Lazio has made at least 2+ fouls in 8 of their last 9 Serie A games.

Right-backs or right-wing-backs vs Lazio & Zaccagni:

• AC Milan - Davide Calabria, 2 fouls & booked. Subbed on 45 mins. (Pierre Kalulu, his replacement, made 2 fouls as well).

• Sassuolo - Nadir Zortea, 1 foul & booked. (Subbed ‘73, replacement Jeremy Toljan also made 1 foul and was booked)

• Inter Milan - Matteo Darmian, 4 fouls.

• Torino - Wilfried Singo, 5 fouls.

• Spezia - Kelvin Amian, 3 fouls.

• Juventus - Juan Cuadrado, 4 fouls & booked.

• Monza - Patrick Ciurria, 3 fouls & booked.

• Roma - Nicola Zalewski, 3 fouls.

• Bologna - Stefan Posch, 5 fouls.

Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest, English Premier League, Saturday 13th May, 15:00.

Bet - dos Santos Danilo To Score Anytime @ 12.00 (11/1)
Bookie - Bet365

Danilo is in a rich vein of goalscoring form, scoring in each of his last 3 Premier League appearances. The Brazilian has had 6 shots in that span and completed the full 90 minutes in 5 successive appearances. These types of bets are always a toss-up, on one hand, the price is just too big, it’s as short as 5/1 in places and the 11/1 available with Bet365 for the midfielder to connect for 4 goals in a row is a tad too big, in reality, it should probably be priced somewhere in the middle. On the other hand, Captain Hindsight kicks in at 5 pm on Saturday and you think “missed the boat on that one, should have backed it for the last 3 weeks ha ha!” Alexa play Nero - Two Minds.

Probably not selling the bet very well to you here, just whack an Ayrton Senna on and be done with it. Vamos, Danilo!

Sunderland vs Luton, English Championship Play-Offs, Saturday 13th May, 17:30

Best Bet - Tom Lockyer Over 0.5 Shots @ 2.00 (1/1)
Bookie - Bet365

Sunderland’s defensive injury troubles don’t look to be getting any better and, likely won’t have a fit, senior centre-back for the play-offs. Trai Hume and Luke O’Nien have been square pegs in round holes in the middle of defence whilst the Black Cats have struggled with injuries. Tom Lockyer is averaging 0.7 shots per game and Luton should look to take advantage of Sunderland’s weakness, especially from set-pieces. To have over 0.5 shots, Tom Lockyer is priced at 2.00 (1/1) with Bet365 and is my play here. Watford did exactly that the other week, both of their centre-backs Christian Kabasele & Ryan Porteous got on the scoresheet. Lockyer is best priced at 21.00 (20/1) with Betfair/Paddy Power to follow suit and hit the back of the net and is worth a small play. The Luton centre-back is in good goalscoring form having scored in his last 2 games.

Real Madrid vs Getafe, Spanish La Liga, Saturday 13th May, 20:00.

Bet - Carles Alena Over 1.5 Shots @ 3.40 (12/5)
Bookie - Bet365

Real Madrid are expected to make wholesale changes to their starting line-up on Saturday night, with their trip to the Etihad for the Champions League semi-final second leg awaiting them next Wednesday. Getafe on the other hand find themselves in a relegation scrap and are in desperate need of points with games running out. They’re currently in the relegation places in 18th, although they’re only separated from 14th-placed Almeria by 2 points.

The re-appointment of José Bordalás for his second spell in charge was very timely and the 1.46 points per match he averaged from 2016-2021 in his first spell will be needed to be replicated in the run-in if Getafe are to retain their La Liga status. Their 1-0 win over Celta Vigo had all the hallmarks of a Bordalás classic, they had 14 shots with 34% possession and the match had 12 yellow cards & 1 red card. One of Getafe’s 7 yellow cards was awarded to their talismanic Turkish forward Enes Ünal, his 5th yellow of the season meaning he serves a one-match suspension. So, who’s gonna step up?

Carles Aleñá had 4 shots in the game vs Celta Vigo and looks to be a starter under the new manager. He’s priced at 3.40 (12/5) with Bet365 to have over 1.5 shots. He’d been used in a deeper central midfield role for the majority of the season but has played in a wider attacking role since Bordalás’ return. He’s only had 2+ shots in 6/22 La Liga starts. However, the heavily rotated Madrid side and his chance to play further forward has drawn me in.

Coventry vs Middlesbrough, English Championship Play-Offs, Sunday 14th April, 12:00.

Bet: Darragh Lenihan & Paddy McNair 2+ Tackles Each @ 4.33 (10/3)
Bookie: SkyBet

Opposition centre-backs put up some huge tackle numbers when occupied with the task of stopping Swedish striker Viktor Gyökeres. The Swede averages the following:

• He has 2.1 dribbles per game

• He’s dispossessed 2.2 times per game

• He has 4.7 unsuccessful touches per game

In the meeting last week, Paddy McNair & Darragh Lenihan both had 4 tackles with only 1 of Gyökeres’ 8 dribble attempts being successful.

Opposition centre-back tackle numbers when playing Coventry since 1st April:

• Middlesbrough - Paddy McNair (4) & Darragh Lenihan (4)

• Birmingham - Marc Roberts (3) & Kevin Long (0)

• Reading - Naby Sarr (5) & Thomas Holmes (4)

• Blackburn - Hayden Carter (1) & Dominic Hyam (0)

• QPR - Rob Dickie (5) & Leon Balogun (4)

• Watford - Wesley Hoedt (3) & Ryan Porteous (2)

• Swansea - Ben Cabango (2) & Nathan Wood (2)

• Stoke - Ben Wilmot (4) & Phil Jagielka (2)

If you want to play it safer and back singles then:

Darragh Lenihan is best priced at 2.50 (6/4) with SkyBet to make 2 tackles. 
Paddy McNair is best priced at 1.95 (19/20) with William Hill to make 2 tackles.
3+ tackles each is priced at 16.00 (15/1) on SkyBet’s BuildABet
4+ tackles each is priced at 96.00 (95/1) on SkyBet’s BuildABet and will be a #CheekyPunt below…