Survived the International break just about. I did my conkers on over 2.5 goals in Uruguay vs Brazil and I’m still seething about it now, Brazil had 2 measly shots and didn’t even manage to hit the target. How? Bruno. G must have had the phone call of Tonali & the mafia. Anyway, domestic footy is back so let’s keep fuckin’ punting…

The SHROODS have seen the best price for the Salah goal and card double on SkyBet which was 19/1 disappear into thin air, but it’s still worth a pop at the odds available. If you’ve been living under a rock or don’t use Twitter/X, the video linked below is basically my reasoning! Punting on him for taking his top off after scoring with a message for peace ‘n’ love ✌🏻 ☮️ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱

Punt: Mo Salah To Score Anytime & To Be Booked @ 15.00 (14/1) - BoyleSports

It’s not a bet where the best odds matter that much as stupid as that sounds. It’s a related contingency bet and based on him scoring and then revealing a message on his undershirt, if you were getting 6/1 on Salah to score anytime in any other week you’re probably happy enough digging into the savings to get more on. Unibet/William Hill are next best priced at 14.00 (13/1) as far as I can see.

Since joining on loan from Basel, Canadian international Liam Millar has had 11 shots in 419 minutes of Championship action for Preston, an average of 2.4 shots per 90 minutes played. The shot figures from his 6 appearances are as follows:

• Plymouth - 90 mins - 3 shots

• Birmingham - 90 mins - 1 shot

• Rotherham - 20 mins - 2 shots

• West Brom - 90 mins - 2 shots

• Leicester - 84 mins - 1 shot

• Ipswich - 45 mins - 2 shots

Millar has been away on international duty with Canada, coming on as substitute in the 81st minute in their 4-1 loss to Japan. Can’t see the travel having any impact on him being named in the XI but he was substitute last time out against Ipswich, would advise cashing out if he isn’t in the starting line-up for Saturday’s lunchtime kick-off as SkyBet won’t void the bet if he is subbed on at any point.

Jeremy Toljan was booked in both Serie A games against Lazio last season, he played the full 90 minutes when they met in January, committing 2 fouls. In May, he came on as a substitute in the 73rd minute, picking up a yellow card for a foul in the 82nd minute. He missed the 1-1 draw with Lecce before the international break but is rumoured to be back fit and hopefully straight back into the starting XI.

It’ll be channel number 57 on Freeview to some of you reading this. However, for those of you new around here, he’ll be directly up against Mattia Zaccagni. The Italian winger is fouled 2.8 times per game on average so far this Serie A campaign, a career average of being felled 3.6 times per 90 minutes. A total that lad who chopped the Sycamore Gap tree down would be proud of. He’s best priced at 7.50 (13/2) with SkyBet to be booked which I think is a fairly large price, was expecting something around 7/2 or 4/1.

• Jeremy Toljan To Commit 1+ Foul @ 2.00 (1/1) with Betfair/Paddy Power.

• Jeremy Toljan To Commit 2+ Fouls @ 6.00 (5/1) with Betfair/Paddy Power.

• Jeremy Tolijan To Be Booked @ 7.50 (13/2) with SkyBet.

Bruno Fernandes has had 72+ passes in half (4/8) of his Premier League appearances this season, albeit he has hit 72 exactly twice. Looking at the games that he has had the passing totals of 72, 78, 72 & 75 with some context below…

• 72 - Forest - trailing from the 4th minute until they took the lead in the 76th and played against 10 men from the 67th minute.

• 78 - Brighton - trailing from the 20th minute, only had 44% possession but managed the highest total of the season so far

• 72 - Palace - trailing from the 25th minute & had 77% possession

• 75 - Brentford - trailing from the 26th minute until McSauce bagged an injury-time brace to save the day.

Man Utd should see at least 60% if not more in terms of possession but it’s probably a stab in the dark given the context of the games played where Bruno has hit the passing totals, however, it’d be hilarious if Sheff Utd were to be leading at some point, wouldn’t it? #GlazersOut

Just rambling on a bit at this point, but is it rude to not back McTominay anytime at 7.00 (6/1) and the brace at 81.00 (80/1) with Bet365? I think it’d be rude to ignore those prices. More chance of him starting now with Casemiro ruled out. Mon the McSauce!

Italian midfielder Roberto Gagliardini has had 2+ shots in 5/8 of his Serie A games so far this season. Have a punt on: Roberto Gagliardini Over 1.5 shots @ 2.50 (6/4) with Bet365. 

He’s also managed 3+ shots in 4/8 games which is priced at an enticing 5.50 (9/2) with the same bookmaker. He has a career shot per 90-minute average of 1.5. For some context, since his move to Monza in the summer, he’s played 677 minutes and managed 18 attempts on goal, whilst at Inter last season he played 777 minutes all year in Serie A and had 16 shots. Link to Roberto Gagliardini’s historical data here.

#CheekyPunts

• Over 2 Cards For Each Team in Newcastle vs. Crystal Palace, Norwich vs. Leeds & Blackburn vs. Cardiff @ 141.00 (140/1) - Bet365

• Liam Millar 3+ Total Shots & Jeremy Toljan To Be Carded @ 60.00 (59/1) - SkyBet

P.S. Dan Burn’s marking the most fouled player in Europe’s Top 5 Leagues in Jordan Ayew (Fouled 3.6 times per game). 2/1 for a couple of fouls on Betfair/Paddy Power if you’re mentally unwell.