22-year-old Uruguayan, Manuel Ugarte is the new midfield monster in Paris after signing from Sporting Lisbon in the summer. He loves a tackle and is partial to a yellow card or two.

Since joining the Portuguese league in 2020/21 when he signed for Famalicao, WhoScored has 94 games worth of data for Ugarte, he averages 3.1 total tackles per game, increasing to 4.1 tackles per 90 minutes played. But it’s the price of his fouls which has caught my eye here:

• He averages 1.9 fouls per game over this 94-game sample

• Increases to 2.5 fouls per 90 minutes played

• Only downside is, he’s made 2+ fouls in just 1 of his 4 Ligue 1 games

His foul totals so far are 4, 1, 0 & 1. However, he did commit 2 fouls in both Uruguay games whilst the domestic season was paused. His career averages have swayed my thinking more than the smaller 4 game sample of his PSG career.

SkyBet’s pricing appears to be generous at 3.00 (2/1) for Manuel Ugarte to commit 2+ fouls. He’s priced at 1.57 (4/7) with Betfair and Paddy Power for the same bet.

There is the possibility that Luis Enrique rests Ugarte after travelling back from South America and the fact he played the full 90 in both Uruguay games. I’ll be hoping Enrique starts him but I’d advise either being able to cash out before the game kicks off or waiting until team news is announced.

If Wilfried Zaha was lining up on Palace’s left-wing I’d probably recommend emptying the bank if these odds were available for an opposition right-back against Crystal Palace.

However, we’re banking on Jeffrey Schlupp being a bit loose when dribbling with the ball and Matty Cash pinching it off him a few times. Wolves’ right-back Nelson Semedo managed 6 tackles vs. Palace before the international break but opposition numbers aren’t overly impressive so far this season other than that, Thomas Partey racked up 3 tackles in his unorthodox inverted full-back role when Arsenal visited Selhurst Park.

Punts:

• Matthew Cash 3+ Tackles @ 3.50 (5/2) - SkyBet

• Matthew Cash 4+ Tackles @ 8.00 (7/1) - SkyBet

Matty Cash himself blanked in terms of tackles in the first two PL games vs. Newcastle and Everton before tallying 3 tackles vs. Burnley and then 4 tackles vs. Liverpool. 1.80 (4/5) is available with Sky for him to make 2 tackles if you prefer playing it safer. I’m chancing the higher odds plays due to Cash’s new wing-back role.

The Hungarian centre-half has a career average of 0.6 shots per game over 131 games that WhoScored has data on.

He had 21 shots in the Turkish league last year when playing for Fenerbache. He had at least 1 shot in 15 of the 32 league games he featured in. Hoffenheim are playing FC Koln, who have conceded the following shot numbers from the opposition central defenders:

• (DFB Pokal) Osnabruck - Wiemann (1) & Gyamfi (1)* ET

• Dortmund - Sule (1) & Hummels (4)

• Frankfurt - Tuta (1) & Pacho (1)

Fellow Hoffenheim central defenders Kevin Vogt (3.25) & John Brooks (1.83) are both shorter prices than Szalai despite having fewer shots per game throughout their careers on average. Vogt averages 0.3 shots per game and Brooks averages 0.5, however, Brooks has had 5 shots in his first 3 Bundesliga games this season (2, 1 & 2) and also scored last time out vs. Wolfsburg.

Koch looks large at 3/1 for a shot. No innuendos intended!

The on-loan Leeds man has a career average of 0.6 shots per game, increasing to 0.7 shots per 90. The central defender is yet to register an attempt on goal in 3 Bundesliga games this year but he did have a shot in the first round of the DFB Pokal and one of their UEFA Europa Conference League two-legged playoff games. So, he’s had a shot in 2 of his 6 Frankfurt appearances this season. Hopefully, after losing Randal Kolo Muani before the transfer deadline, Frankfurt will be more reliant on attacking threats from all over the pitch.

Opponents Bochum have conceded the following shots to opposition central defenders in the first 3 Bundesliga games this season:

• VfB Stuttgart - Waldemar Anton (1) & Dan-Axel Zagadou (1)* - scored

• Borussia Dortmund - Nico Schlotterbeck (1)

Punt: Robin Koch Over 0.5 Shots @ 4.00 (3/1) with Bet365.

In the last 8 South Wales derbies dating back to October 2019, there have been 199 fouls. An average of 24.875 fouls per match. Over this sample size, Cardiff are committing the majority of the fouls, with the data averaging out at 15.25 infringements per game.

Cardiff to commit 12+ fouls @ 2.10 (11/10) with SkyBet has won in 7 out of these 8 head-to-heads. They’ve committed at least 14+ fouls in 7/8 as well, so I do think the 5.50 (9/2) on offer with SkyBet for the Bluebirds to commit 15+ fouls will give us a run for our money.

For those of you who’d rather lose a fiver than only win £27.50, you can double up Cardiff to commit 15+ fouls with Swansea full-back Joshua Key to make 3+ tackles via SkyBet’s BuildABet feature, this pays out at 20.00 (19/1) or if you’re feeling extra devious, Cardiff to commit 17+ fouls & Joshua Key to make 4+ tackles pays at 101.00 (100/1).

Key is averaging 3.2 tackles thus far across 5 Championship appearances and he’s played every minute. His tackle numbers read: 4, 1, 5, 6 & 0. Below are his prices with SkyBet if you’re a boring, sensible person like me and don’t mind betting on singles:

• Joshua Key 2+ Tackles @ 1.80

• Joshua Key 3+ Tackles @ 3.50

• Joshua Key 4+ Tackles @ 8.00

Both Darmstadt and Gladbach have struggled to defend set-pieces so far, conceding the joint highest amount of goals from set-pieces in the Bundesliga (3). Gladbach themselves have scored twice from set-piece situations, both of those coming from the head of Japanese central defender Ko Itakura after a corner kick.

The Japan international is priced at 12.00 (11/1) with Bet365 to find the back of the net for 3rd time in 4 Bundesliga games. I couldn’t put you off backing Itakura to score with his head at 19.00 (18/1) or if you wanted to opt for the other centre-half Marvin Friedrich, he’s best priced at 13.00 (12/1) with SkyBet to score anytime.

#CheekyPunts

• Cardiff 15+ Fouls & Joshua Key 3+ Tackles @ 20.00 (19/1) - SkyBet

• Cardiff 17+ Fouls & Joshua Key 4+ Tackles @ 101.00 (100/1) - SkyBet

• Attila Szalai To Score Anytime @ 34.00 (33/1) - Bet365