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Tuesday 3rd December: Premier League on Prime
Basement Battle Primed For Cards
A midweek round of Premier League fixtures can only mean one thing, Ally McCoist commentating on Amazon Prime! That cannae be AC/DC?
Tuesday night’s double header on Prime sees four teams in and around the relegation zone going head to head with each other. 19th placed Ipswich host fellow strugglers 17th placed Crystal Palace and 14th placed West Ham travel to a Leicester City side sitting in 16th position in the table.
Ruud Van Nistelrooy will take charge of the Foxes for the first time since succeeding Steve Cooper as they look to win their first game since Jordan Ayew’s last-minute winner against Southampton back in October. Whilst both Ipswich and Palace are searching for only their 2nd win of the season.
💰 Punt: Both Teams to Receive 2+ Cards
📗 Bookie: Bet365
🎲 Odds: 2.00 (1/1)
⚽️ Game: Ipswich vs. Crystal Palace
Ipswich rank 7th in the discipline standings in the Premier League this campaign, Crystal Palace sit 13th. The Tractor Boys have racked up 34 yellow cards and 2 red cards whilst The Eagles have picked up 30 yellow cards and 1 red card.
The man in the middle for this basement battle is Craig Pawson. Although he hasn’t been that much of a card shark so far this year, he did dish out 8 yellow cards in Leicester vs. Nottingham Forest despite the fact there was only 25 fouls committed in the game. I think this game could be similar, with players ‘taking one for the team’ as the dark arts come into play late on in the game, I wouldn’t be surprised if either keeper took a time-wasting yellow card as well.
For further information on referee appointments and card stats for the midweek and future fixtures, @m_kirby95 on X/twitter is well worth a follow.
🟨🟥 We’ve got plenty of midweek football to tuck into.
Here’s a look at the men in the middle across the #EPL & #EFL
Sam Barrott’s appt to #AFC v #MUFC catches the eye
— Matthew Kirby (@m_kirby95)
5:01 PM • Dec 2, 2024
It also feels like the sort of a game worthy of a player card punt. Liam Delap and Maxence Lacroix coming to blows for example!
Delap is averaging 2.2 fouls per game and has picked up 3 yellow cards in his 13 PL appearances, Lacroix on the other hand has picked up 3 yellows in his 10 PL appearances and is averaging just the 1 foul per game. Both are best priced with Bet365 as Liam Delap is 4.75 (15/4) and Maxence Lacroix is 6.00 (5/1). With the double paying a handsome 26.00 (25/1).
Punts
Both Teams to Receive 2+ Cards @ 2.00 (1/1) - Bet365
Liam Delap & Maxence Lacroix to be Booked @ 26.00 (25/1)
💰 Punt: Lucas Paqueta Over 61.5 Passes
📗 Bookie: Bet365
🎲 Odds: 4.00 (3/1)
⚽️ Game: Leicester vs. West Ham
It’s always a guessing game when a new manager first takes over at a club. Van Nistelrooy has preferred a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 formation in his young managerial career so far. Managing Leicester will be a completely different challenge than managing PSV or being interim manager of Manchester United and RvN knows this. He has expressed his desire to implement his own playing style on the Foxes, however, his ideals will not come at the expense of avoiding relegation.
Gif by manutd on Giphy
“When you play top teams in the Premier League, or mid teams, or lower ranked teams, it sometimes requires a different approach. The style of play is adjusted on how can we win? I’m not the romantic type of manager that puts style in front of results. I love style, I love having the ball, pressing the team high, because you have more of the ball but we’re facing opponents here. We’re not the dominant side in the league, but we want to win.”
During his four-game spell as interim boss of The Red Devils, Van Nistelrooy actually beat Leicester twice. In both the league and the Carabao Cup. This can sort of give us an insight into how the Dutchman will set his team up and allow the opposition to play.
For example, the league game in which Man Utd won 3-0. Leicester had 49% possession. Harry Winks registered 70 attempted passes, his 3rd highest in the league this term. Boubakary Soumare registered 69 attempted passes, almost double his career average of 36.9 passes per game.
Passing totals of Manchester United opponents during Van Nistelrooy’s interim tenure:
Leicester (Cup) - Boubakary Soumare (60) & Luke Thomas (48)
Chelsea (League) - Reece James (82)
PAOK (Europa) - Abdul Rahman Baba (51), Omar Colley (63)
Leicester (League) - Victor Kristiansen (37), Harry Winks (70) & Boubakary Soumare (69)
Bet365 have Emerson Palmieri and Lucas Paqueta priced up for passes. Paqueta is only averaging 42.7 passes per game in the PL this term but has managed 62+ on 3 separate occasions, with 2 of those coming in his last 3 games.
If Van Nistelrooy sets his Leicester side up to counter attack and allows the Hammers to control possession, Paqueta should dictate play from deep and hopefully racks up the passes rather than the measly 25 passes games he’s very capable of. Due to the nature of the bet, I’m only taking Paqueta to have over 61.5 passes because it’s either boom or bust. Let’s hope AJ & Big Justice are on to bring the BOOM!
Punt: Lucas Paqueta Over 61.5 Passes @ 4.00 (3/1) - Bet365
#CheekyPunts
Over 4 Cards for Ipswich & Over 4 Cards for Crystal Palace @ 111.00 (110/1) - Bet365
Over 20.5 Tackles for Ipswich & Over 22.5 Tackles for Crystal Palace @ 17.00 (16/1) Over 23.5 Tackles for Leicester & Over 22.5 Tackles for West Ham @ 15.00 (14/1) - Cross match double @ 255.00 (254/1) - Bet365
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