Everton v Brentford, Saturday 11th March, 15:00.

Ivan Toney has consistently been one of the most fouled players in the Premier League since Brentford’s promotion the other year. In the 21/22 season, he made 33 appearances, playing 2908 minutes and on average he was fouled 2.5 times per 90 minutes. So far this campaign, he’s played 22 times, totalling 1972 minutes and on average he’s fouled 2.3 times p90. Conor Coady has been an unused substitute in Everton’s last two games, with Sean Dyche opting to go with Michael Keane to partner James Tarkowski instead. Keane has only made 3 appearances this season with his 1st being a 27-minute substitute appearance vs Brentford where he made 1 foul. Michael Keane only averages 0.5 fouls per 90 mins he plays across his career but the 2.00 (1/1) on SkyBet for him to commit a foul in their Player Fouls market looks too hefty a price to turn down here. 

• Recommended bet - Michael Keane 1+ Fouls @ 2.00 (1/1)

• Bookie - SkyBet

• Confidence - 3/3

Crystal Palace v Man City, Saturday 11th March, 17:30

Central midfielders have accumulated fouls in numbers over recent weeks with Bruno Guimaraes (3), Joelinton (2), Jefferson Lerma (2), Xaver Schlager (2) and all 3 Nottingham Forest central midfielders committing one foul each. Albert Sambi Lokonga should make his 4th consecutive start in central midfield for Crystal Palace on Saturday evening, especially with Cheick Doucoure suspended after his red card last weekend v Aston Villa. Lokonga has only committed 2 fouls in his brief Palace career so far but historically he averages 1.1 fouls per 90 minutes played (77 career apps, 5416 minutes). The on-loan Arsenal man will likely be over-eager to impress and attempt to make an impact at derailing Manchester City’s title bid against his parent club. Paddy Power/Betfair has him priced up at 1.83 (5/6) in their Player To Commit 1 Or More Fouls market and the 5.00 (4/1) about him making 2 or more fouls is well worth a punt too.

• Recommended Bets -
  Albert Sambi Lokonga 1+ Fouls @ 1.83 (5/6) & 2+ Fouls @ 5.00 (4/1)

• Bookie - Paddy Power/Betfair

• Confidence - 1+ fouls 3/3 & 2+ fouls 2/3

Schalke 04 V Borussia Dortmund, Saturday 11th March, 17:30

The Revierderby takes place on Saturday night as a resurgent Schalke side host title challengers and their fiercest rivals Dortmund. Schalke comes into this unbeaten in 6 league games albeit 4 of those games were goalless draws and Dortmund arrives at their local rivals with their 10-game win streak coming to a halt along with any Champions League dreams as Chelsea knocked them out on Wednesday night. Dortmund’s injury woes continued on Wednesday night with Julian Brandt pulling up and coming off after 5 minutes, Brandt has been Dortmund’s biggest goal threat in the Bundesliga this year with 8 goals meaning the onus will be on others to fill the void his absence leaves. I’m hoping it will be Jude Bellingham who steps up to the plate and becomes more of an attacking threat, Paddy Power/Betfair have him priced up at 2.00 (1/1) in their Player To Have 1 Or More Shots On Target market. Bellingham averages 2 shots per game in the Bundesliga chipping in with 4 Bundesliga goals the same amount he managed in 7 Champions League appearances this season. This is the first Bellingham-based angle I like the look of for this game; with it being a derby I can see the Englishman putting himself about a bit as he’s no stranger to a meaty tackle, he averages 2.6 tackles pg in the league alongside 1.1 fouls The 2.20 (6/5) for him to commit 2 or more fouls on Paddy Power/Betfair does look appealing as well. These two bets combine for a 4.32 (3.32/1) punt via Paddy’s BetBuilder option. This bet won in September when the two sides met with Bellingham having 5 shots, 1 on target and committing 2 fouls. In his only other experience of this derby, Bellingham came off the bench in the 61st minute and was booked 2 minutes later, committing 2 fouls in the half-an-hour he was on the pitch.

• Recommended Bet - Jude Bellingham 1+ Shot On Target & Jude Bellingham 2+ Fouls @ 4.32 (3.32/1)

• Bookie - Paddy Power/Betfair

• Confidence - 1/3

#CheekyPunts

Following on from the above reasoning, I’ll be backing Jude Bellingham to have 2+ shots on target, to commit 2+ fouls and to be shown a card @ 41.49 (40.49/1) with Paddy Power/Betfair

Chuba Akpom is finally showing why Football Manager were right all those years ago and that he can score goals. He’s got 21 in 25 starts this season and averages 2.6 shots with 1.4 of those shots hitting the target per game. Akpom has 8 goals in his last 7 Championship appearances, scoring a brace on 3 separate occasions and committing 8 fouls in that time. He’s received a card for taking his top off v QPR and dissent vs Reading, on both occasions he scored a brace. Akpom to score two or more goals and be booked is 66.00 (65/1) vs Swansea which has landed twice in his last 3 games but I’ll be taking a slightly different angle and backing Chuba Akpom to score, Chuba Akpom to be carded and Nathan Wood-Gordon to be carded at 56.00 (55/1) with Bet365. Chuba Akpom has been fouled 20 times in his last eight appearances, Nathan Wood-Gordon has received eight yellow cards in 29 Championship apps for Swansea.

Summary

• Michael Keane to commit 1+ fouls @ 2.00 (1/1) - SkyBet

• Albert Sambi Lokonga 1+ fouls @ 1.83 (5/6) & 2+ fouls @ 5.00 (4/1) - Paddy Power/Betfair

• Jude Bellingham 1+ shot on target & 2+ fouls @ 4.32 (3.32/1) - Paddy Power/Betfair

• Jude Bellingham 2+ shots on target, 2+ fouls & to be shown a card @ 41.49 (40.49/1) - Paddy Power/Betfair

• Chuba Akpom to score, Chuba Akpom to be carded & Nathan Wood-Gordon to be carded @ 56.00 (55/1) - Bet365