💰 Punt: Ola Aina Over 2.5 Tackles, Ola Aina Over 3.5 Tackles & Ola Aina Over 4.5 Tackles
📗 Bookie: Bet365
🎲 Odds: 2.00 (1/1), 3.50 (5/2) & 6.50 (11/2)
⚽️ Game: Nottingham Forest vs. Man City

“People are trying to give me early nightmares bruv, go away man”

That was Ola Aina on Snapchat earlier in the week talking about marking Jeremy Doku this weekend. Although, he might be one of the better full-backs in the league at stopping the Belgian winger, Aina registered 4 tackles in 63 minutes in the reverse fixture earlier this campaign when he was tasked with handling Doku. His replacement that day Eric da Silva Moreira attempted 6 tackles whilst on the field, only succeeding with 2 of those attempts. Aina is averaging 2.8 attempted tackles over the course of the Premier League season per game and is successful with 1.9 of those.

On the other hand, Doku has looked back to his best in recent weeks. At least until he’s in front of goal anyway, all fart and no shit comes to mind. The Belgian winger attempted 9 dribbles vs. Tottenham with 5 of those being successful. During their 2-0 loss to Liverpool, Doku attempted 20 dribbles, 15 of those were successful and his counterpart Trent Alexander-Arnold was dribbled past a whopping 12 times.

If Doku’s dribbling continues, I can see Aina racking up at least 3+ tackles over the course of 90 minutes with plenty of potential of tallying 5 tackles.

Punts:

• Ola Aina Over 2.5 Tackles @ 2.00 (1/1) - Bet365

• Ola Aina Over 3.5 Tackles @ 3.50 (5/2) - Bet365

• Ola Aina Over 4.5 Tackles @ 6.50 (11/2) - Bet365

💰 Punt: Michael Ihiekwe Over 1.5 Shots & Over 2.5 Shots
📗 Bookie: Bet365
🎲 Odds: 6.00 (5/1) & 19.00 (18/1)
⚽️ Game: Plymouth vs. Sheffield Wednesday

The Pilgrims and The Owls are two of the worst sides in The Championship at defending set-pieces. Although Sheffield Wednesday (17) have conceded the most goals in the league from set-pieces this season, it’s their opponents Plymouth Argyle who have conceded the most shots (182) from set-piece situations, Argyle have also conceded the joint second-most goals from set-plays.

Naturally, I’m drawn to look at the prices of both teams centre-backs for a shot or three. Sheffield Wednesday’s Michael Ihiekwe’s is the standout for The Owls. Ihiekwe has had 14 shots in 13 league appearances (12 starts).

He’s had 1+ shot in 8/12 starts.
He’s had 2+ shots in 6/12 starts.

He’s yet to tally 3 shots in a single game, however, given the amount of shots Plymouth concede from set-pieces, I feel it’s worth a tickle. He’s priced at 2.10 (11/10) to have Over 0.5 Shots with Bet365. He’s also 6.00 (5/1) to have Over 1.5 Shots and 19.00 (18/1) to have Over 2.5 Shots with the same firm.

Punts:

• Michael Ihiekwe Over 1.5 Shots @ 6.00 (5/1) - Bet365

• Michael Ihiekwe Over 2.5 Shots @ 19.00 (18/1) - Bet365

The potential for Plymouth’s defenders to get their behemoth heads on the end of a set-piece or two is always there. However, it’s worth noting that Plymouth have had the fewest shots from set-pieces in The Championship this term (83). But, Sheffield Wednesday have conceded the 7th most shots from set-pieces (150).

But, that’s not gonna stop us now, is it?

Matthew Sorinola has been taking corners recently and assisted Maksym Taloverov’s headed goal as Argyle threatened another FA Cupset when they went 1-0 up at The Etihad vs. Man City. Be a bit stupid not to have a cheeky punt or two on similar happening today, wouldn’t it?

• Matthew Sorinola Anytime Assist @ 15.00 (14/1) - Bet365

• Matthew Sorinola Anytime Assist & Nikola Katic To Score a Header @ 171.00 (170/1) - Bet365

• Matthew Sorinola Anytime Assist & Maksym Taloverov To Score a Header @ 226.00 (225/1) - Bet365

💰 Punt: Keane Lewis-Potter Over 1.5 Tackles & Keane Lewis-Potter Over 3.5 Tackles
📗 Bookie: Bet365
🎲 Odds: 1.91 (10/11) & 7.50 (13/2)
⚽️ Game: Brentford vs. Aston Villa

Keane Lewis-Potter is only averaging 1.2 tackles per90 when playing as a left-back this season for Thomas Frank’s Brentford side. Lewis-Potter has only hit 2+ tackles in 12/25 starts this campaign and has only hit 4+ tackles on one solitary occasion in the Premier League this term. Not so great I hear you say.

However, left-backs vs Aston Villa is a complete different story.

• Club Brugge - Maxim De Cuyper (5) - 7 attempted tackles

• Cardiff - Luey Giles (4) 64 minutes played - Joel Bagan made 1 as sub

• Crystal Palace - Tyrick Mitchell (5)

• Chelsea - Marc Cucurella (2) - 4 attempted tackles

• Liverpool - Andrew Robertson (0)

• Ipswich - Conor Townsend (4)

• Tottenham - Djed Spence (0)

• Wolves - Rayan Ait Nouri (3) - 4 attempted tackles 73 minutes played

• Celtic - Greg Taylor (2) - 3 attempted tackles

• West Ham - Emerson (1) - 2 attempted tackles & Oliver Scarles (2)

• Monaco - Christian Mawissa (2)

• Arsenal - Myles Lewis-Skelly (2)

• Everton - Vitaliy Mykolenko (4)

• West Ham - Oliver Scarles (3)

• Leicester - Luke Thomas (3) - 4 attempted tackles

Since the turn of the year, left-backs vs. Unai Emery’s Aston Villa side are averaging 2.86 tackles per game. Largely down to Leon Bailey on The Villains right-wing, however, the addition of Marco Asensio and Marcus Rashford gives Emery more options in attacking areas which has seen Morgan Rogers pop up on the right side of the pitch. Rogers averages 4.8 dribbles per 90 mins with 2.8 of those being unsuccessful whilst Bailey averages 4.7 dribbles with 2.9 of those unsuccessful using the same metric. So, basically, Keane Lewis-Potter should have a busy Saturday evening regardless of who he’s marking!

Punts: 

• Keane Lewis-Potter - Over 1.5 Tackles @ 1.91 (10/11) - Bet365

• Keane Lewis-Potter - Over 2.5 Tackles @ 7.50 (13/2) - Bet365

💰 Punt: Joao Gomes To Be Booked
📗 Bookie: Bet365
🎲 Odds: 4.75 (15/4)
⚽️ Game: Wolves vs. Everton

Wolves’ games are averaging 4.91 cards per game this term, 2.25 for the Wanderers and 2.66 for their opponents. At Molineux, this changes to 2.14 for The Old Gold and 2.57 for visitors. Everton’s games are only averaging 3.69 cards per game, 2.31 of those are for The Toffees and 1.38 for their opponents. When playing away, Everton’s games average 4.00 cards per game, 2.42 for Moyes’ men and 1.58 for their opponents.

Stuart Attwell is only averaging 3.64 cards per game in the Premier League this season. However, he has recently been fairly card happy. He dropped down to referee The Championship clash between Leeds and Sunderland last month where he went to his pocket on 9 separate occasions. He also dished out 7 yellow cards during Bournemouth’s 4-1 demolition of Newcastle in January. Recency bias playing it’s part here, although, he does have that look of an absolute smug twat doesn’t he? Get the cards out, divvy.

Joao Gomes is averaging the most tackles (3.1), fouls (2.2) and joint-most cards (7) for Wolves this season. Despite that, he’s 4.75 (15/4) to be booked on Saturday night. It might take a South American square off with Carlos Alcaraz for it to happen but I think it’s a great price for Gomes to get his name jotted down in the referee’s notebook. During his Premier League tenure so far, the Brazilian has picked up 23 cards in 70 games. Over the course of his career he’s picked up 41 yellows in 135 appearances, he picks up a yellow every 224.1 minutes on average.

Punts:

• Joao Gomes To Be Booked @ 4.75 (15/4) - Bet365

• Joao Gomes & Idrissa Gueye To Be Booked @ 17.00 (16/1) - Bet365

• Joao Gomes, Idrissa Gueye & Nelson Semedo To Be Booked @ 86.00 (85/1) - Bet365