White rabbit, white rabbit, white rabbit. 🐇 🐇 🐇

💰 Punt: Jacob Greaves Over 0.5 Shots & Jacob Greaves Over 1.5 Shots
📗 Bookie: Bet365
🎲 Odds: 2.37 (11/8) & 8.00 (7/1)
⚽️ Game: Ipswich vs. Southampton

Jacob Greaves got his first Premier League goal last week against league leaders Liverpool. A consolation in the dying embers of the match but nonetheless he’s a Premier League goalscorer, a feeling he described as ‘bittersweet’ given the circumstances he scored in. So, why not do it again this week but just win as well?

Greaves has had 116 shots in 216 career appearances according to WhoScored. 78 of those shots have been headed efforts. He’s had 7 shots in 13 games for Ipswich this term, 5 of which have been headers, including his goal last week below which you can see if you skip to 2:55 in the video below. That was just the 4th goal Liverpool have conceded from a set-piece this season, relegation rivals Southampton have conceded 12 from set-piece situations! Greaves to make it unlucky 13?

Punts:

• Jacob Greaves - Over 0.5 Shots @ 2.37 (11/8) - Bet365

• Jacob Greaves - Over 1.5 Shots @ 8.00 (7/1) - Bet365

The towering centre-half is best priced at 14/1 to score anytime with Bet365. He’s 22/1 to score a header with the same firm. And a repeat of last week with Julio Enciso to assist and Jacob Greaves to score a header is 66/1. 

If Paraguayan international Julio Enciso does get the nod for his first Ipswich start since joining on loan from Brighton, then his shot prices with Bet365 are definitely worth a punt. He’s an absolute shot machine!

On the face of it the 118 shots in 56 games isn’t that impressive, just the 2.1 shots per game which is fairly standard for an attacking player. That is, however, in just 2360 minutes of football. An average of 4.5 shots per90 minutes played. This season in the Premier League at Brighton he had 20 shots in 288 Premier League minutes, an average of 6.3 shots per90 minutes, he started just 2 games.

One of those starts was vs. Brentford where Enciso had 8 shots before the 40th minute! Brentford concede the most shots in the league at an average of 18.7 shots per game. Who concede the 2nd most? Southampton, at an average of 18.3 shots per game.

If Enciso does start, it’s easy to see him give the Over 6.5 shots (20/1) a run for it’s money. It may be worth laddering the play from Over 2.5 shots (10/11) with staggered stakes if that piques your interest. ‘Awld Gerard.

💰 Punt: Tyler Adams To Be Booked
📗 Bookie: SkyBet
🎲 Odds: 5.00 (4/1)
⚽️ Game: Bournemouth vs. Liverpool

USA international Tyler Adams has picked up 4 cards in 13 Premier League games this term, having started just 8 of those. He’s picked up 2 cards when coming on as a substitute. 3 of his cards this term have been for fouls and 1 for time-wasting.

Adams now faces a well-rested Liverpool midfield after they rotated heavily in their midweek Champions League loss to PSV in Eindhoven. Both Ryan Gravenberch & Alexis Mac Allister weren’t in the travelling squad, Liverpool’s two most fouled players at 1.4 and 1.2 times per game. Adams is best priced at 5.00 (4/1) with SkyBet to be booked.

The only annoying aspect of this game is all the best prices for the usual suspects to be carded are on different bookies. Ryan Christie is best priced 4/1 with Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power. Lewis Cook is best priced at 4/1 with Bet365. A shame as there could have been some filthy doubles and/or trebles on the go. Oh go on then…

Punt: Tyler Adams To Be Carded @ 5.00 (4/1) - SkyBet

💰 Punts: Mihailo Ivanovic To Score Anytime &
Raees Bangura-Williams Anytime Assist.
📗 Bookie: Bet365
🎲 Odds: 4.33 (10/3), 11.00 (10/1) & 26.00 (25/1)
⚽️ Game: Millwall vs. QPR

Despite making his Championship debut as a second-half substitute vs Hull on the 18th January, nobody has more league assists for Millwall than impressive youngster Raees Bangura-Williams (3). He’s registered an assist in three successive games for the Lions and is priced at a chunky 10/1 with Bet365 to make it 4 consecutive league appearances that he’s assisted a teammate. His passing does seem to be decisive which could be seen as both a positive and a negative. The negative is that he’s only made 3 key passes since his debut, the positive is that all 3 of those key passes have led to a goal. Will it continue on Saturday?

His last two have both been assisting the BFS (Big Fuckin’ Serb) Mihailo Ivanovic, who seems to have improved massively under Alex Neil’s management. The Serbian international is best priced at 10/3 to score anytime, also with Bet365. A double of Bangura-Williams assist and Ivanovic scoring anytime is a hefty 25/1 through Bet365’s bet builder. Ivanovic has scored 3 goals in his last 4 starts.

Punts:

• Mihailo Ivanovic To Score Anytime @ 4.33 (10/3) - Bet365

• Raees Bangura-Williams To Assist @ 11.00 (10/1) - Bet365

• Mihailo Ivanovic To Score Anytime & Raees Bangura-Williams To Assist @ 26.00 (25/1) - Bet365

💰 Punt: Alfie Doughty Anytime Assist
📗 Bookie: Bet365
🎲 Odds: 5.50 (9/2)
⚽️ Game: Sheffield Wednesday vs. Luton

Alfie Doughty made his return from injury last weekend vs. Millwall, playing 68 minutes on the left side of midfield. He now gets the best possible match-up for his set-piece delivery. Doughty has registered 4 assists in 14 starts this term and his deliveries last year in the Premier League created 8 goals for his teammates in a relegated side.

Luton top the charts for goals from set-pieces with 14 (FOURTEEN) in the second-tier of English football. Saturday’s opponents Sheffield Wednesday are DOG MUCK at defending set-pieces. They’ve conceded a whopping 16 (SIXTEEN) GOALS from set-plays. It’s a match made in a degenerate punters heaven. The only caveat with the bet is that Doughty may not see out the 90 minutes given his recent return from injury, that is of course if he starts at all. Jordan Clark would be an alternative if that was to be the case, the midfielder has just 3 assists this term but has 9 key passes in his last 3 games with 5 of those coming against Millwall, Clark assisted Mark McGuinness’ headed goal from a corner vs. Oxford on the 21st January.

Punt: Alfie Doughty Anytime Assist @ 5.50 (9/2) - Bet365

💰 Punt: Ezri Konsa Over 0.5 Shots & Ezri Konsa Over 1.5 Shots
📗 Bookie: Bet365
🎲 Odds: 3.25 (9/4) & 13.00 (12/1)
⚽️ Game: Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Aston Villa

Why am I doing this to myself? Why?

Konsa has 10 shots in 29 games for Aston Villa this season. 5 shots in 21 Premier League games, 5 shots in 7 Champions League games and he blanked in his solitary EFL Cup appearance.

He has 89 shots in 241 career games. Not exactly selling this very well. Aston Villa are down to the bare bones defensively, as seen in midweek in their win vs. Celtic. It actually got worse with Matty Cash limping off injured and now facing up to a month on the sidelines. Unai Emery also confirmed Tyrone Mings is likely to be out. “Tyrone Mings is injured as well, not really bad, but I think he will need some more days to be ready to play.” Another makeshift defence for the Villains should mean a back 4 of something like: Lamare Bogarde, Ezri Konsa, Boubacar Kamara & Lucas Digne. Which should see Konsa be the main target from Villa set-pieces, especially with Amadou Onana still unavailable through injury.

Konsa had 3 shots vs. Celtic, all from set-piece situations. Interestingly, none of those shots were headed. Aston Villa have scored the second most goals in the Premier League from set-pieces (9) and their West Midlands rivals Wolves (yep, you guessed it) have conceded the most goals from set-pieces in the PL (17). Including 2 in their loss to Chelsea on the 20th January, centre-back Tosin Adarabioyo scored from a set-piece and his partner Trevoh Chalobah had 2 headed shots, with his 2nd shot flying in the net before Noni Madueke turned into a prime Ruud van Nistelrooy and tapped it in on the goal line. Slink.

Punts:

• Ezri Konsa - Over 0.5 Shots @ 3.25 (9/4) - Bet365

• Ezri Konsa - Over 1.5 Shots @ 13.00 (12/1) - Bet365

#CheekyPunts

• Ipswich vs. Southampton: Julio Enciso Anytime Assist & Jacob Greaves To Score a Header @ 67.00 (66/1) - Bet365

• Millwall vs. QPR: Mihailo Ivanovic To Score Anytime & Raees Bangura-Williams To Assist @ 26.00 (25/1) - Bet365