⚽️ Inter Milan vs AC Milan
🏆 UEFA Champions League Semi-Final 2nd Leg
🗓 Tuesday 16th May 2023
🕗 20:00
📺 BT Sport 1

💰 Bet: Theo Hernandez Over 1.5 Shots
📗 Bookie: William Hill
🎲 Odds: 2.60 (8/5)

Flying French full-back Theo Hernandez's Champions League shooting stats aren’t the greatest. He’s only hit 2+ shots in 2/10 UCL games. But when considering the larger sample size of his Serie A form, he’s hit 2+ shots in 15/29 games in the league. (1 & 3 in both league derbies vs Inter). Hernandez is averaging 1.8 shots per 90 in Serie A this season, an increase on his career average of 1.2 shots per 90. He only managed 1 shot in the first leg last week. However, I think his attacking output will be called upon a lot more if AC Milan is to stand a chance of overturning the 2-0 deficit. 2.60 (8/5) for Theo Hernandez Over 1 Shot with William Hill is a bet here. The 2.50 (6/4) available with Bet365 is fine as an alternative.

⚽️ Luton vs Sunderland
🏆 Championship Play-Off Semi-Final 2nd Leg
🗓 Tuesday 16th May 2023
🕗 20:00
📺 Sky Sports Main Event

💰 Bet: O’Nien, Bell & Doughty 2+ Fouls Each
📗 Bookie: Betfair/Paddy Power via BetBuilder
🎲 Odds: 12.00 (11/1)

Luke O’Nien will continue in his centre-back role tonight, he made 2 fouls and was booked last week. He’ll attempt to contain both Elijah Adebayo & Carlton Morris. Alfie Doughty and Amari’i Bell will be tasked with stopping Amad Diallo. Doughty committed 4 fouls, picking up a card although Bell only committed a single foul. I’m hoping Amad will look to slow the game down by drawing fouls out of the opposition and look to frustrate Luton. He was fouled 3 times in the first leg. It’ll be a bonus if Patrick Roberts is fit and fills in at right-back again, the Sunderland man was also fouled 3 times at the Stadium of Light. Luke O’Nien, Amari’i Bell and Alfie Doughty all to commit 2 or more fouls is a bet at 12.00 (11/1) with Betfair/Paddy Power through their bet builder.

⚽️ Man City vs Real Madrid
🏆 UEFA Champions League Semi-Final 2nd Leg
🗓 Wednesday 17th May 2023
🕗 20:00
📺 BT Sport 1

💰 Bet: David Alaba 2+ & 3+ Tackles
📗 Bookie: SkyBet
🎲 Odds: 3.10 (21/10) & 8.50 (15/2)

If the leaked Real Madrid line-up is to be believed, David Alaba will be playing left-back with Camavinga pushed into a midfield role. Last week, Camavinga made 5 tackles, 2 fouls and was carded from left-back. SkyBet has priced David Alaba up at 3.10 (21/10) to make 2+ tackles and 8.50 (15/2) to make 3+ tackles. When playing LB in his career, Alaba averages 1.3 tackles per game from a 205-game sample size. Camavinga was up against Bernardo Silva last week, who was the most dispossessed player on the pitch (4). Pep has said this in his press conference today…

Looking at the line-up from the first leg, I’d imagine the change he’d make would be Bernardo Silva for either Riyad Mahrez or Phil Foden. But given the price on offer, I’m happy enough with whoever starts right-wing for Man City. I’m sure Alaba will have a tough night regardless of who he’s marking

After Jack Grealish (3.4), Riyad Mahrez is City’s most fouled player per 90 in the premier league this season (2.00 p90). Phil Foden is fouled 1.4 times p90 in the PL and 2.00 p90 in the UCL. David Alaba is priced at 2.00 (1/1) with both SkyBet and Paddy Power to commit 1 or more fouls.

• David Alaba to commit 2+ fouls is 7.00 (6/1) through SkyBet’s BuildABet (add 1+ & 2+ to slip)

• David Alaba to commit 3 or more fouls is 26.00 (25/1) on Betfair/Paddy Power in their ‘Fouls Committed Specials’ market

• David Alaba to commit 4 or more fouls is 151.00 (150/1) on Betfair/Paddy Power in their ‘Fouls Committed Specials’ market

Alaba’s foul numbers are generally pretty awful, he only averages 0.5 fouls per game when playing left-back so I wouldn’t go mad with your stakes but I’ve had a bet on 1+ foul so that I’ll make a decent profit if he only makes 1 and then sprinkled a quid or two on the higher odds plays. Gamble responsibly and all that jazz.

⚽️ Sheffield Wednesday vs Peterborough
🏆 League 1 Play-Off Semi-Final 2nd Leg
🗓 Thursday 18th May 2023
🕗 20:00
📺 Sky Sports Main Event

💰 Bet: Over 49.5 Throw-Ins & Over 9.5 Peterborough Goal Kicks
📗 Bookie: Bet365
🎲 Odds: 4.00 (3/1)

Will Sheffield Wednesday overcome a 4-0 first-leg deficit? Probably not.
Since 2015/16, 10 teams in the EFL Play-Offs have attempted to overcome a deficit of 2 or more goals in the second leg. Only Northampton qualified from a 2+ goal deficit in that sample, beating Cheltenham 3-0 in 2019/20. Sides trailing by 2 or more goals going into the 2nd leg are averaging:

• 16.3 shots

• 6.5 corners

Throw-ins between the sides this season - 48, 62 & 51.
20/21 & 21/22 League 1 semi-final second-legs - 35, 59, 56 & 51.

Over 49.5 throw-ins in the match are priced at 2.00 (1/1) with Bet365. Peterborough’s goal-kick line looks relatively high at first glance. But looking at recent numbers it’s a decent bet.

• Peterborough averaged 8.6 goal-kicks in their last 10 games.

• Sheff Wed’s opponents averaged 9.3 goal-kicks in their last 10 games.

Over 9.5 goal-kicks in the match for Peterborough are also priced at 2.00 (1/1) with Bet365. Combined with the throw-ins shout above, they combine for a nicely priced 4.00 (3/1) double through Bet Builder.

8/14/7/12/10/9/8/6/3/9 - Peterborough’s GK’s last 10 games
8/11/10/12/6/9/8/4/13/12 - Sheff Wed’s opponents GK’s 10 games

Goal-kicks and throw-ins data is taken from the 365 Scores website/app.

💸 #CheekyPunts