💰 Punt: Over 4.5 Total Cards & Over 6.5 Total Cards
📗 Bookie: Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power
🎲 Odds: 2.00 (1/1)
⚽️ Game: Burnley vs. Leeds

Rinse and repeat from when Sunderland faced Burnley the other week. The odds are generous enough once again as two promotion contenders go head-to-head. 

Burnley’s fixtures vs. fellow promotion chasing sides:

• Sunderland (A) - 7 yellow cards & 1 red card 🍓 

• Leeds (A) - 9 yellow cards & 1 red card 🍓

• Sheffield United (A) - 4 yellow cards

• Sunderland (H) - 4 yellow cards.

Leeds’ fixtures vs. fellow promotion chasing sides:

• Burnley (H) - 9 yellow cards & 1 red card 🍓

• Sunderland (A) - 6 yellow cards

• Sheffield United (H) - 3 yellow cards

Current title favourites Leeds (2/7) and second-favourites Burnley (5/1) have both had a great weekend without even kicking a ball. With Sheffield United losing 3-0 to Hull City on Friday night and then Sunderland slipping up at home to Plymouth Argyle as they drew 2-2 on Saturday, both sides have the chance to gain some momentum tonight. Leeds would go 4 points clear of The Blades with a win, whilst a Burnley win would see them go joint top of the table, trailing Daniel Farke’s men on goal difference alone.

The importance of the game to both sides is obvious and I’m expecting a battle between the sides, I’m having a bet on over 4.5 cards. Bet365 did have the Over 4.5 Asian Total Cards market at 1.950 (19/20) but it’s dropped a fair bit today. Please inform your casually racist uncle that if Leeds’ Japanese midfielder Ao Tanaka gets booked, it doesn’t count as double! Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power have Over 4.5 Total Cards at 2.00 (1/1) and Over 6.5 Total Cards at 5.50 (9/2), I’ve gone back to the well as I’m hoping to see it boil over.

There were 8 players booked in the reverse fixture earlier this season with Burnley’s Bashir Humphreys receiving two yellow cards and a not-so early shower as he was sent off in the 98th minute.

Tonight’s referee is Josh Smith. Smith has shown at least 4+ cards in 75% of his games this term and has a second-half card average of 2.8 per game. Card data is taken from Matthew Kirby who I’ve mentioned before is well worth a follow on Twitter/X, you can view his data and follow him by clicking here. With the potential for the game being tight and nervy, it may be worth a small play on some second-half cards.

For example:

• Over 1 Cards in the 2nd Half for Leeds & Over 1 Cards in the 2nd Half for Burnley @ 4.00 (3/1) - Bet365

• Over 2 Cards in the 2nd Half for Leeds & Over 2 Cards in the 2nd Half for Burnley @ 17.00 (16/1) - Bet365

Both teams received 2 second-half cards as Burnley faced Sunderland the other week, with the added bonus of the Jaidon Anthony ghost-card that never was, it was never shown on TV cameras but was added on Opta at the time, just checked again as I’ve been looking through for this game and it appears that it never happened. It’s fine though, you know why? Cos we still got fuckin’ paid mate. 1500 a week, my man.

If Burnley win, James Trafford will probably help the cards cause as he gets up to his usual antics. Saying that, Illan Meslier would probably do the same if Leeds take all 3 points. Let’s hope for the commentators moaning about unsavoury scenes that none of us want to see. In reality, it’s what we all want. It’s what we live for. THE DARKEST OF ARTS!

Is Josh Smith an actual card shark or does he just hate Stoke and their players? We’ll find out tonight.