Midweek Bets 28th February - 1st March

A few winners last time out with 3 Felix shots, 3 Newcastle cards and 3 money on offer with Tommy Fury going off odds against to beat up a yuppie. But, as Jake Paul said, “don’t judge me by my wins, judge me by my losses.” So, Nottingham Forest to win a game of football and their keeper to be booked, ey? A one-way ticket to the loony bin 🔜 

I’m off on holiday for a week on Tuesday so Friday’s newsletter may be put on hold or it’ll be a much shorter version with just bets and none of the analytical spiel I use to justify why I’m wasting my money.

Juventus v Torino - Tuesday, 28th February, 19:45.

Juventus would be sitting in 2nd place in Serie A if the club didn’t have ties with the Italian mob. Their 15-point deduction for dodgy finances means they find themselves in 8th place coming into the Derby della Mole (That’s the Turin Derby for less cultured folk) with Torino sitting 1 point behind them in 10th. Torino are conceding an average of 12 shots per game overall this season with this increasing to 13.4 when they’re playing away from home, Juventus are averaging the 2nd highest shots per game (13.8) with this increasing to 15.3 when they play at home. Angel Di Maria is averaging 2.7 shots per 90 in Serie A and he comes into this off the back of an incredible individual performance v Nantes in the Europa League where he had 7 shots with all 7 on target and 3 of them hitting the back of the net for his hat-trick. I couldn’t put you off his 5.00 (4/1) anytime goalscorer price but I’ll be backing Angel Di Maria to have over 2.5 shots at 2.37.

• Recommended bet - Angel Di Maria to have over 2.5 shots @ 2.37 (11/8)

• Bookie - Bet365

• Confidence - 3/3

Fulham v Leeds - Tuesday, 28th February, 19:45.

Leeds’ focus will likely be on Premier League survival for the remainder of the season so I’d be surprised if Javi Gracia didn’t make a fair few changes from their vital 1-0 win over fellow relegation candidates Southampton on Saturday. Gracia led Watford to the FA Cup final in 2019 but his team were comfortably mid-table for most of the season. On the other hand, Fulham are flying in the PL and can have a real go at a cup run here. Manor Solomon should start and Bet365 have priced the Israeli international at 5.50 (9/2) to continue his impressive goalscoring form. He’s made an impact from the bench scoring in 3 straight substitute appearances vs Nottingham Forest (24 mins), Brighton (14 mins) & Wolves (53 mins).

• Recommended bet - Manor Solomon To Score at Any Time @ 5.50 (9/2)

• Bookie - Bet365

• Confidence - 1/3.

Luton Town v Millwall - Tuesday, 28th February, 20:00.

Zian Flemming has been an impressive recruit from the Eredivise side Fortuna Sittard, the Dutchman has bagged 11 Championship goals for Millwall and is averaging 3 shots per game which is the joint-second highest in the division. Betfair/Paddy Power are offering 2.00 (1/1) for him to have 3 or more shots, you can add in 1 of those shots to be on target for a two-legged Bet Builder that pays 2.92 (1.92/1). The odds are considerably shorter on other bookies which will mean fuck all in the grand scheme of things but it’s always nice to get the best price, especially when it goes on to lose!

• Recommended bet - Zian Flemming 3+ Shots & 1+ Shot On Target @ 2.92 (1.92/1)

• Bookie - Betfair/Paddy Power

• Confidence 2/3

#CheekyPunt - Newsletter Longshot

The #CheekyPunt will be a bet-builder double across the Fulham v Leeds & Man Utd v West Ham FA Cup 5th-round ties.

Harry Wilson’s game time in the Premier League is quite scarce but he often gets the nod in cup games and has registered 3, 5, and 2 shots (1.90 for 2 shots and 3.75 for 3 shots on Bet365) in the FA Cup this year. Leeds’ opponents have registered an average of 23 tackles per game in their last 10 matches. It’s easy to manipulate data in your favour and make it look like you’re the #1 value bet spotter around, but Fulham are only averaging 16.5 tackles in their last 10 & 16.2 pg across the PL season so far. It’s a punt or rather part of a punt as I’m combining Harry Wilson to have over 2.5 shots & over 21.5 tackles in the match for Fulham at 9.50 (17/2) as the first part of this Barney Rubble.

Carabao Cup winners Manchester United are back on the hunt for more silverware as they host West Ham in the FA Cup on Wednesday night. The second part of the double is over 18.5 tackles in the match for Manchester United and over 12.5 shots in the match for West Ham at 9.00 (8/1). Man Utd averaged 21.7 tackles over their last 10 games and conceded 11.4 shots per game. Due to Man Utd’s fixture pile-up, it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw a similar game to the cup final where Man Utd got a first-half lead and then invited pressure onto themselves in the second half, leading to blocked shots and shots from a distance that never really troubled David De Gea.

The two bets combine for an 85.50 (84.5/1) double. The worst (and best) part about this is the inevitable reload and go again on Wednesday with this bastard sitting in unsettled bets for 24 hours with big fat red crosses after Harry Wilson does his ACL on 2 shots. Walloping in that CVC code like there’s no tomorrow because you need TO KEEP PUNTING!!!