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- Midweek Bets 18th & 19th April
Bullet Point Bets
Best Bet: Blackburn vs Coventry Each Team Over 1 Card In The Second Half @ 4.20 (16/5) - Bet365
Stoke vs Wigan - Omar Rekik to be booked @ 5.00 (4/1) - Bet365 and SkyBet
Omar Rekik & Jacob Brown to be booked @ 23.00 (22/1) - Betfair/Paddy Power and Bet365 are similarly priced here.
QPR vs Norwich - Gabriel Sara over 2.5 shots @ 3.75 (11/4) - Bet365
Inter Milan vs Benfica - Antonio Silva 70+ passes @ 2.60 (8/5) - Betfair/Paddy Power
Antonio Silva over 82.5 passes & Nicolas Otamendi over 84.5 passes @ 17.00 (16/1) - Bet365
#CheekyPunt - Double @ 391.00 (390/1)
Antonio Silva over 82.5 passes & Nicolas Otamendi over 84.5 passes doubled with each team over 2 second-half cards in Blackburn vs Coventry - Bet365.
Blackburn vs Coventry - English Championship, Wednesday 19th April, 19:45. Sky Sports Arena.
Best Bet: Each Team Over 1 Second Half Card @ 4.20 (16/5) - Bet365 via Bet Builder
6th vs 7th in April. A playoff spot is up for grabs. 1 point between the sides. Live on Sky. All the hallmarks of an absolute classic, either that or I’ll be searching Indeed by midnight on Wednesday looking for a part-time job to make ends meet.
This bet would have won in the last two Championship meetings between the sides. 6 yellows and a red & 7 yellows over the 90 minutes in the last two meetings. 20+ booking points each has landed in 4 of the last 5 meetings and is a decent price at 2.20 (6/5) with William Hill. I’m just hoping the ref keeps his cards in his pocket until the second half when I think the game will become heated and frustrations start to show.
Referee, Jeremy Simpson has shown both teams two second-half cards in 3 of the last 5 games that he’s officiated. The bet is available at a slightly lower 4.00 (3/1) with William Hill via #BuildYourOdds if you don’t have access to Bet365.
Stoke vs Wigan - English Championship, Tuesday 18th April, 19:45.
Bets:
Omar Rekik To Be Booked @ 5.00 (4/1) - Bet365 & SkyBet
Omar Rekik & Jacob Brown To Be Booked @ 23.00 (22/1) - Bet365 & Betfair/Paddy Power
Jacob Brown is a lively character and doesn’t shy away from getting stuck into his opponent. He has a high foul count at 1.8 per 90 mins & he’s also fouled a fair bit at 1.9 per 90 mins. If he continues in his wide-right attacking midfield role, he will find himself up against Omar Rekik, who has been playing as a left-sided centre-half in a back 3 for Wigan of late. The Arsenal loanee has been carded in 4 of his 8 games and was shown a second yellow vs Burnley as well. Rekik is averaging 1 foul a game but he has been substituted in 4 of his games and of course, sent off in another. Foul stats increase to 1.4 under the per 90 mins played metric. Although he’s a likely risk to be subbed, the 5.00 (4/1) for him to be booked with both SkyBet and Bet365 is a nice enough price to get involved here. I’ll also be dabbling on the double with Omar Rekik & Jacob Brown both to be booked @ 23.00 (22/1) which is available on both Bet365 and Betfair/Paddy Power at similar prices. Jacob Brown has 9 yellows in 37 starts this season in The Championship for Stoke. He has 25 cards in 123 league appearances for Stoke. There’s always the chance of some handbags between the pair to make all of the boring analytical spiels above completely pointless as well!
QPR vs Norwich, English Championship, Wednesday 19th April, 19:45.
Bet: Gabriel Sara Over 2.5 Shots @ 3.75 (11/4)
QPR’s free fall into the relegation battle has continued at pace over the Easter period and it doesn’t get any easier as they face a Norwich side with slim hopes of sneaking into the last playoff spot. There are a few angles I like that are anti-QPR and pro-Gabriel Sara. He’s 3.75 (11/4) to have over 2.5 shots with Bet365, he’s had 3 or more shots in 6 of his last 9 games. He’s also scored 4 goals in that same 9 game period, he’s 6.00 (5/1) to score anytime with Betfair/Paddy Power. Sara averages 2 shots per 90 mins for Norwich this season, 1.1 of those shots are from outside of the box. He’s 23.00 (22/1) with Bet365 to score from outside of the box which I’ll be having a little tickle on. To find this bet you can either go through bet builder > player to score > goal method. Alternatively, click the player tab & then scroll to the goal method market.
Including his Sao Paulo career, the Brazilian averages 2.2 shots per 90 mins, 1.2 shots per 90 are from outside of the box, and this data is from WhoScored, which is accessible here.
Inter Milan vs Benfica, UEFA Champions League, Wednesday 19th April, 20:00. BT Sport 2.
Bets:
Antonio Silva 70+ Passes @ 2.60 (8/5) - Betfair/Paddy Power
Antonio Silva Over 82.5 Passes & Nicolas Otamendi Over 84.5 Passes @ 17.00 (16/1) - Bet365
Benfica will arrive at the San Siro chasing a two-goal deficit from the first leg in Portugal. Inter led from the 51st minute last week and Benfica struggled to break them down leading to a lot of possession for the central defenders who couldn’t break Inter’s defensive lines and resulted in high passing numbers, Antonio Silva (81) & Felipe Morato (87). The 2.60 (8/5) for him to have 70 or more passes with Betfair and Paddy Power is a good price and worth a punt here. Alternatives are available on bet365 if you want to play it safer, with over 67.5 passes at 1.83 (5/6) or you can hide behind the couch and count the extra 3 passes for over 72.5 passes at 2.75 (7/4) for a couple more pennies in the coffers. I’ll also be having a bet on Antonio Silva over 82.5 passes & Nicolas Otamendi Over 84.5 passes @ 17.00 (16/1) with Bet365. Similar to last week, I think Benfica will struggle to break Inter down for large portions of the game and remain patient in their build-up play, with Inter happy enough sitting off and remaining compact defensively, looking to frustrate the Portuguese side. Nicolas Otamendi was suspended for the first leg last week but should start in place of Felipe Morato on Wednesday night.
#CheekyPunt
The 17.00 (16/1) passes bet from the Benfica game above forms part of a double with the same angle as the best bet, each team over 2 cards in the second half in Blackburn & Coventry @ 23.00 (22/1). They combine to create a 391.00 (390/1) double.
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