💰 Punt: Edo Kayembe 2+ Total Shots
📗 Bookie: SkyBet/William Hill
🎲 Odds: 3.40 (12/5)
⚽️ Game: Watford vs. Ipswich

Congolese midfielder Edo Kayembe has had at least 1+ shot in all 10 of his starts in The Championship. He’s had at least 2+ shots in 6/10 of those starts this season and the 3.40 (12/5) on offer with SkyBet for Kayembe to make it a ham and cheese toastie in Thailand and go 7/11 is a generous price.

Ipswich concede the 4th least amount of shots in the league at 10.7 per game which goes some way to explaining the price. However, this could lead to Watford taking shots from distance. The hornets are averaging 6.3 shots from outside of the box per game, only Hull and Sunderland have had more. 38% of the shots Ipswich concede come from outside of the box. Edo Kayembe himself has had 22 shots this season with 11 (50%) from outside of the penalty area. Of the 95 games that WhoScored has data on him, Kayembe has had 96 shots with 70 coming from outside of the box.

For anyone wanting a bit of a longer shot, Edo Kayembe to have 3+ Total Shots & 1+ Shots On Target is priced at 15.00 (14/1) with SkyBet via their BuildABet function. It’s a bet that has landed 3 times this season for Kayembe vs Millwall, Rotherham and Norwich.

💰 Punt: Isaiah Jones To Win 2+ Fouls
📗 Bookie: SkyBet
🎲 Odds: 1.80 (4/5)
⚽️ Game: Middlesbrough vs. Hull

Isaiah Jones is fouled 2.3 times per 90 minutes played so far this campaign. Over a 100 game sample size of data on WhoScored, Jones is fouled 2.5 times per 90 minutes. He’s been fouled at least 2+ times in 7 of his last 8 games in the league, fouled at least twice in 8/14 league starts. Jones missed the Boro’s defeat to Ipswich after serving a 1 match ban for accumulating 5 yellow cards, hopefully he’s straight back into the XI here.

Punt: Isaiah Jones To Win 2+ Fouls @ 1.80 (4/5) with SkyBet.

It’s a contrast of styles with Hull committing the 2nd fewest amount of fouls per game (8.7) and Middlesbrough drawing the 5th most fouls from their opponent per game (11.4) but if Hull dominate possession as I expect them to, they may be forced to commit a couple of professional fouls on Jones to stop the counter-attacking threat from Michael Carrick’s side.

Jones to win 3+ Fouls is priced at 3.50 (5/2) and has landed 6 times this season. Probably clutching at straws with 4+ Fouls won at 8.00 (7/1) but it has landed twice this year when Birmingham fouled him 5 times and Leicester (67% possession) fouled him 6 times.

💰 Punt: A Red Card In The Match
📗 Bookie: William Hill
🎲 Odds: 4.75 (15/4)
⚽️ Game: Porto vs. Shakhtar Donetsk

I could bore you all to death with red card statistics and referee averages and blah blah blah. Just look at the Group H standings!

Porto sit 2nd on 9 points, Shakhtar lie in 3rd also on 9 points. Shakhtar will need to win to go through as Porto have a superior goal difference as well as beating the Ukrainian side 3-1 back in September.

Punt: A Red Card In The Match @ 4.75 (15/4) with William Hill.

There’s been a red card in 7/22 of Porto’s games this year, similarly with Shakhtar there’s been a red card in 7/23 of their competitive games this season. In the UCL there’s been a red card in 2/5 of Porto’s group games and 1/5 of Shakhtar’s. With the game state and financial implications of qualification for both clubs, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a red card late on in the second half.

Romanian referee Istvan Kovacs has went to his back pocket 5 times in 24 Champions League games, 7 times in 28 Europa League games and a whopping 82 times in 253 Romanian Superliga games.

Couple of early Christmas Cranberry slices wouldn’t go a miss Mr. Kovacs… Both teams to have a red card is priced at 71.00 (70/1) with William Hill.

💰 Punt: Over 39.5 Throw Ins
📗 Bookie: Bet365
🎲 Odds: 2.50 (6/4)
⚽️ Game: Newcastle vs. AC Milan

Newcastle’s 5 games in the Champions League group stages have seen a total of 224 throw-ins. There’s been 40+ throw-ins in 4/5 of those games and both games at St James’ Park have seen totals of 56 & 53. The return fixture in Milan resulted in a total of 40 throws exactly.

It looks a hard game to call with qualification hopes for both sides lying firmly in Dortmund’s hands. The only way AC Milan can qualify is a Dortmund win and to win themselves. Newcastle also need to win but they need PSG to draw or lose and they could advance due to their head-to-head record.

Punt: Over 39.5 Throw Ins @ 2.50 (6/4) with Bet365

I’m hoping Eddie Howe will set his injury plagued side up for one last intense effort even if they fail to qualify. Despite Milan’s throw-in totals generally being pretty poor, I think the Geordie faithful might make up for that and the home numbers are hard to ignore. Over 50.5 Throw Ins @ 19.00 (18/1) is probably worth a Kendall Jenner too…Just a shame there’s no Nick Pope to boot it out of play from every goal-kick!

#CheekyPunts

• Watford vs Ipswich: Ryan Porteous To Commit 2+ Fouls & Edo Kayembe To Have 2+ Shots @ 13.00 (12/1) - SkyBet
  Watford vs Ipswich: Ryan Porteous To Commit 3+ Fouls & Edo Kayembe To Have 3+ Shots @ 121.00 (120/1) - SkyBet

• Porto vs Shakhtar Donetsk: Both Teams Red Card @ 71.00 (70/1) - William Hill

• Newcastle vs AC Milan: Over 50.5 Throw Ins @ 19.00 (18/1) - Bet365