💰 Punt: Over 22.5 Throw Ins for Manchester City, Over 24.5 Throw Ins for Manchester City & Over 26.5 Throw Ins for Manchester City
📗 Bookie: Bet365
🎲 Odds: 5.50 (9/2), 10.00 (9/1) & 17.00 (16/1)
⚽️ Game: Manchester City vs. Plymouth

The likelihood is Pep’s side dominate possession probably with a figure close to 80%, Marmoush scores a hat-trick, that random Brazillian centre-back they signed is the best player to ever exist and poor old Plymouth get tonked 6-0, BUT, WHAT IF… Plymouth win, the keeper gets carded (250/1) & they just keep booting the ball out for throw-ins, or even better, tackle the ball out for throw-ins?

It’s a bit of a shit or bust type bet, so I’ll be playing Man City’s higher throw ins lines with Bet365 for their FA Cup tie on Saturday as they host Plymouth. The Pilgrims knocked out Liverpool in the last round thanks to some heroic defending, specifically booting the ball out of play 32 times for Liverpool to take a throw-in, same game-plan, Muslic?

Plymouth’s games under newly appointed David Brent-esque manager Miron Muslic have seen the following totals when it comes to throw ins:

• Oxford - 66 match throw-ins, 41 Oxford throws 

• QPR - 51 match throw-ins, 21 QPR throws

• Burnley - 48 match throw-ins, 28 Burnley throws (61% possession)

• Sunderland - 46 match throw-ins, 26 Sunderland throws (69% possession)

• West Brom - 55 match throw-ins, 35 WBA throws (69% possession)

• Liverpool - 48 match throw-ins, 32 Liverpool throws (75% possession)

• Millwall - 59 match throw-ins, 41 Millwall throws (64% possession)

• Blackburn - 47 match throw-ins, 38 Blackburn throws (74% possession)

• Luton - 59 match throw-ins, 39 Luton throws (60% possession)

• Cardiff - 51 match throw-ins, 29 Cardiff throws

So, over the 10 games since Muslic was appointed as Argyle manager, their games are averaging 53.00 match throw-ins per game, Argyle’s opponents are averaging 33.00 throw-ins per game during this same sample size. Of course, Manchester City will completely dominate possession and Plymouth may struggle to lay a glove on them, however, the stats speak for themselves and I think the higher lines are well worth a punt here.

Plymouth’s opponents have had 23+ throw-ins in 9/10 games under Muslic
Plymouth’s opponents have had 25+ throw-ins in 9/10 games under Muslic
Plymouth’s opponents have had 27+ throw-ins in 8/10 games under Muslic

Punts:

• Over 22.5 Manchester City Throw Ins @ 5.50 (9/2) - Bet365

• Over 24.5 Manchester City Throw Ins @ 10.00 (9/1) - Bet365

• Over 26.5 Manchester City Throw Ins @ 17.00 (16/1) - Bet365

A Plymouth Tackles x Man City Throw Ins Bet Builder may be of interest to those who love a cheeky punt…

• Over 21.5 Tackles for Plymouth & Over 22.5 Throw Ins for Man City @ 12.00 (11/1) - Bet365

• Over 23.5 Tackles for Plymouth & Over 24.5 Throw Ins for Man City @ 29.00 (28/1) - Bet365

• Over 25.5 Tackles for Plymouth & Over 26.5 Throw Ins for Man City @ 61.00 (60/1) - Bet365

Plymouth are averaging 21.5 tackles per game under Muslic’s management and have totalled 128 tackles in their past 5 games, an average of 25.6 tackles per game. Man City’s recent opponents have seen an uptick in their tackle totals as well, Tottenham (26), Liverpool (22) & Newcastle (26) for example in recent weeks.

Plymouth’s last FA Cup game saw them rack up 26 tackles and concede 32 throw ins to Liverpool. Man City’s last FA Cup game vs. Leyton Orient saw the O’s rack up 33 tackles and the Cityzens take 26 throw ins. Does this mean anything? Probably not. Good to know though, isn’t it? Lulled into a false sense of security that you’re gonna be filthy rich like when you wake up after dreaming about winning the lottery. Groundhog Day commences once more!