Man City vs Arsenal Bets

A 110/1 #CheekyPunt & a bet from Liverpool vs West Ham.

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Keep Punting
April 26, 2023

Bullet Point Bets

  • Best Bet: Aymeric Laporte 2+ Tackles @ 2.75 (7/4) - SkyBet

  • 2+ Aymeric Laporte Tackles & 2+ Aymeric Laporte Fouls @ 13.00 (12/1) - SkyBet

  • #CheekyPunt - 3+ Aymeric Laporte Tackles & 3+ Aymeric Laporte Fouls @ 111.00 (110/1) - SkyBet

  • Konate & Van Dijk 90+ passes @ 4.62 (3.62/1) - Betfair/Paddy Power

Man City vs Arsenal, English Premier League, Wednesday 26th April, 20:00, BT Sport 1.

Best Bet: Aymeric Laporte 2+ Tackles @ 2.75 (7/4) - SkyBet

This bet is very team news dependent and trying to understand Pep roulette is practically impossible but if Laporte is to line up as a left-sided centre-back/left-back in place of the injured Nathan Ake, he’ll be tasked with stopping Bukayo Saka. Saka is dispossessed 1.5 times per game & has 2.1 unsuccessful touches per game on average, he’ll likely be Arsenal’s outlet along with Martinelli and if Laporte is tasked with stopping the England International, the odds of 2.75 (7/4) for Laporte to make 2+ tackles with SkyBet are generous. Another betting angle could be fouls and/or a yellow card considering the trends of left-backs vs Saka in the EPL recently.

  • vs Southampton - Perraud; 3 tackles, 2 fouls & booked

  • vs West Ham - Cresswell; 3 tackles, 0 fouls & booked* card for an off-the-ball foul which the referee booked him for retrospectively without awarding a free-kick.

  • vs Liverpool - Robertson; 2 tackles, 3 fouls & booked* card for incident with assistant referee

  • vs Crystal Palace - Mitchell; 2 tackles, 0 fouls - not booked

  • vs Fulham - Robinson; 2 tackles, 2 fouls - not booked

Again, this could be a whole lot of words for nothing if Pep leaves the Spaniard on the bench and brings Darius Vassell out of retirement to play left-back instead. But, I’ve backed a couple of longer shots including Laporte via Sky Bet’s Build A Bet function:

  • 2+ Aymeric Laporte Tackles & 2+ Aymeric Laporte Fouls @ 13.00 (12/1)

  • 3+ Aymeric Laporte Tackles & 3+ Aymeric Laporte Fouls @ 111.00 (110/1)

I don’t think Guardiola trusts Sergio Gomez enough yet to play him in a game of such importance so my guess is between Laporte & Akanji to play the left-back/left-centre-back role tonight, so an Akanji alternative for the longer shots, if that is the case, would be Akanji 2+ fouls & 3 tackles @ 17.00 (16/1) & Akanji 3+ fouls & 4 tackles @ 131.00 (130/1) which I’ll be backing if Laporte doesn’t start.

West Ham vs Liverpool, English Premier League, Wednesday 26th April, 19:45, BT Sport 2.

Bet: Konate & Van Dijk 90+ passes @ 4.62 (3.62/1) - Betfair/Paddy Power

Serious PTSD potential betting passes against West Ham after the whole Joe Rothwell debacle but here I am. This bet has won in both of Liverpool’s last two games vs Leeds and Forest and as mentioned in the last newsletter, I’m sure West Ham will be happy enough without the ball again given their fixture schedule with Europa Conference League semi-finals looming. The Bournemouth fixture on Sunday saw high passing totals for Bournemouth defenders Chris Mepham (90) & Jack Stephens (111) although the early West Ham lead would have played a big factor in that. Liverpool will dominate possession regardless of the scoreline and it’s a nice enough price I feel. An alternative if you aren’t keen on the double would be Andy Robertson to attempt 70+ passes at 4.20 (16/5) with the same bookie, the Scot had 97 passes vs Notts Forest last time out. I can just imagine myself screaming obscenities at the TV as he’s on 64 passes and Klopp sends Tsimikas on though, so I’ve opted for the centre-half passing double in the hope they both see out the 90. Ibrahima Konate & Virgil Van Dijk both to attempt 90+ passes @ 4.42 (3.42/1) with Betfair/Paddy Power being my bet here.

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