Bullet Point Bets

• Over 1 2nd Half Cards For Schalke, Stuttgart and Bochum @ 10.97 (9.97/1) - Bet365

• BEST BET: Tom Lockyer Over 1.5 Tackles @ 2.50 (6/4) - Bet365

  Tom Lockyer & Viktor Gyokeres To Be Booked @ 29.00 (28/1) - SkyBet

• Damian Martinez To Be Booked @ 9.00 (8/1) - Bet365

#CheekyPunts

• Over Two 2nd Half Cards For Schalke, Stuttgart and Bochum @ 143.00 (142/1) - Bet365

• Tom Lockyer, Viktor Gyokeres & Jordan Clark To Be Booked @ 151.00 (150/1) - SkyBet

• Dan Burn & Kai Havertz To Be Booked @ 51.00 (50/1) - Bet365

• Emiliano Martinez & Jordan Pickford To Be Booked @ 67.00 (66/1) - Bet365

Always like to punt cards for teams in a relegation battle on the final day. Absolute stroke of genius, I know. Never been thought of before!

I like the second-half cards market as a betting angle here. All three teams involved have the threat of relegation, the joy of safety, or a reprieve from the relegation play-off game on the line on the final day. Schalke, Stuttgart & Bochum to get over 1 second-half card each is priced at 10.97 (9.97/1) with Bet365. An over 2 second-half cards each team treble is priced at 143.00 (142/1)… Go on then! You’d imagine there’ll be plenty of time-wasting, frustration and just all round genuine headloss given the viable threat of relegation to all three teams. Exciting times ahead sat refreshing Bet365’s minimap praying for that sweet yellow card notification to come through.

As mentioned in a previous newsletter, Coventry striker Viktor Gyökeres draws a lot of tackles from opposition centre-backs, due to his high dispossessed and unsuccessful touches numbers. Updated tackle numbers since April after the play-off semi-finals are below:

• Middlesbrough - Paddy McNair (1) & Darragh Lenihan (3)

• Middlesbrough - Paddy McNair (4) & Darragh Lenihan (0)

• Middlesbrough - Paddy McNair (4) & Darragh Lenihan (4)

• Birmingham - Marc Roberts (3) & Kevin Long (0)

• Reading - Naby Sarr (5) & Thomas Holmes (4)

• Blackburn - Hayden Carter (1) & Dominic Hyam (0)

• QPR - Rob Dickie (5) & Leon Balogun (4)

• Watford - Wesley Hoedt (3) & Ryan Porteous (2)

• Swansea - Ben Cabango (2) & Nathan Wood (2)

• Stoke - Ben Wilmot (4) & Phil Jagielka (2)

Tom Lockyer has made 5 tackles on both occasions when he has come up against Coventry & Viktor Gyökeres. Couldn’t put my fellow degenerates off backing 3 and 4 Lockyer tackles at 4.50 (7/2) and 8.50 (15/2) either…

11/05/2023 - Coventry 1-1 Luton - Tom Lockyer 5 tackles as CB in a back 3.
08/03/2022 - Coventry 0-1 Luton - Tom Lockyer 5 tackles as CB in a back 3.

I’m hoping Gyokeres and Lockyer are at each other’s throats for the full game and they make a 29.00 (28/1) player card double with SkyBet. Add Jordan Clark for a 151.00 (150/1) treble and Bob’s your uncle, the best play-off final ever. Although saying that, Michael Oliver is the referee so that might be a bit of a stretch.

What’s that, Barry?

This pair has a bit of history since Havertz’s elbow on Burn back in March 2022, when the German only received a yellow card, much to Big Dan Burn’s displeasure. When the sides met in November, after full-time they clashed again with another episode of handbags. Let’s hope for round 3 whilst both are on the pitch this time! Bet365 have priced the double for both players to be booked at 51.00 (50/1).

Kai Havertz has committed 60 fouls in the Premier League this season (1.8 fouls pg, 2.1 fouls p90) but only 3 of his 5 yellow cards have been for committing a foul. Dan Burn has committed 34 fouls in 37 PL appearances at a 0.9 fouls pg average, picking up 6 yellow cards.

Bet365 is best priced for singles:
Dan Burn @ 6.00 (5/1)
Kai Havertz @ 9.00 (8/1)

Referee: Jarred Gillett - the best a man can get

Aston Villa need a win to secure 7th place and European football next season. As West Ham have shown this season, targeting Conference League glory can also be a route to the Europa League, a competition manager Unai Emery is a serial winner of. So, 3 points against a Brighton side on the beach having already secured Europa League football themselves. Easy? Probably.

Villa goalkeeper Emi Martinez has picked up 7 yellow cards this season and is well known for his time-wasting antics when his side is leading. One last bit of shithousery to secure Conference League footy at Villa Park next season is all I ask. SkyBet’s price of 10.00 (9/1) for the Argentine stopper to be carded is decent enough for me to get involved, I was expecting something closer to around 6/1 or 7/1.

The price of Jordan Pickford is as expected above at 7.50 (13/2) with Bet365 and Everton will need a win to guarantee their Premier League survival. Pickford has a similar reputation to Martinez when it comes to time-wasting, probably a tad short to back as a single but he makes a nice card double with Emi Martinez at 67.00 (66/1) with Bet365 for a Cheeky Punt.

#CheekyPunts

• Over Two 2nd Half Cards For Schalke, Stuttgart and Bochum @ 143.00 (142/1) - Bet365

• Tom Lockyer, Viktor Gyokeres & Jordan Clark To Be Booked @ 151.00 (150/1) - SkyBet

• Dan Burn & Kai Havertz To Be Booked @ 51.00 (50/1) - Bet365

• Emiliano Martinez & Jordan Pickford To Be Booked @ 67.00 (66/1) - Bet365