Rob Edwards’ Luton Town side sit in 19th position in The Championship heading into Friday Night’s clash with Paul Warne’s 14th placed Derby County. Despite the fact they currently occupy a lowly 19th place, Luton’s home form is much closer to play-off contender than it is relegation dogfight. They have the 8th best home record in the league having picked up 18 points from 11 league games (5W, 3D, 3L). Which is the complete polar opposite to their away form that is the 3rd worst in the division (1W, 1D, 8L).

💰 Punt: Nathaniel Phillips Over 0.5 Shots & Nathaniel Phillips Over 1.5 Shots
📗 Bookie: Bet365
🎲 Odds: 2.50 (6/4) & 9.00 (8/1)
⚽️ Game: Luton Town vs. Derby County

Derby have a similar story to their season, good at home but not so good away. They’re a team who rely a lot on set-pieces as shown last Friday night in their 4-0 rout of Portsmouth as Eiran Cashin headed in from a Kenzo Goudmijn corner-kick in the first-half. This was Derby’s 12th goal from a set-piece this season which is the best in the league, that’s 46% of the 26 league goals they’ve scored in total. They might as well be getting interviewed by Jon Parkin and Chris Brown the amount they’ll be under the cosh tonight, therefore, dead-ball situations may be even more important than usual as they look to get a result vs. The Hatters.

Unfortunately, Cashin picked up a hamstring injury and will miss their trip to Luton this evening and is likely to be out for the next 4-6 weeks. However, that opens the door for the likes of Nathaniel Phillips who has the opportunity to step up in his absence. Luton have conceded the joint-third most goals alongside Plymouth from set-piece situations in The Championship (8) and as aforementioned Derby top the ranks for goals scored from set-piece situations (12).

The likes of Phillips, Curtis Nelson and Kane Wilson should be Derby’s attacking threats from any dead balls. Nathaniel Mendez-Laing has assisted Curtis Nelson twice this season from a corner with the centre-back connecting with his head to find the back of the net on both occasions, he also assisted Kane Wilson’s consolation headed goal vs. Blackburn in August.

Historically, Nat Phillips averages 0.8 shots per90 minutes. That’s from 66 shots in 103 appearances that WhoScored have data for. 52 of those shots have been headed shots & 63 of the shots have been from inside the penalty area. This campaign, the ex-Liverpool defender has had 8 shots in 627 minutes of league action, averaging 1.1 shots per 90 minutes. He managed 4 shots in his first start of the season vs. Sunderland and has been inconsistent since then, however, at the odds on offer I think it’s worth a punt this evening.

Nathaniel Phillips Over 0.5 Shots is priced at 2.50 (6/4) with Bet365 and Over 1.5 shots is priced at 9.00 (8/1) with the same bookmaker. I like the look of those prices as singles and it feels like the sort of game that has some potential to hit a lottery ticket, just in time for Christmas Boxing Day.

• Nathaniel Phillips Over 1.5 Shots & Curtis Nelson Over 1.5 Shots @ 51.00 (50/1) - Bet365

• Nathaniel Phillips Over 1.5 Shots, Curtis Nelson Over 1.5 Shots & Kane Wilson Over 1.5 Shots @ 251.00 (250/1) - Bet365