💰 Punt: Over 20.5 Tackles for Brighton and Over 19.5 Tackles for Chelsea
📗 Bookie: Bet365
🎲 Odds: 6.50 (11/2)
⚽️ Game: Brighton vs. Chelsea

These two sides met last week in the FA Cup with Brighton winning 2-1 thanks to goals from Georginio Rutter and Kaoru Mitoma despite Bart Verbruggen’s howler in the first five minutes putting them a goal down.

Despite the fact there was only 11 fouls in the match, Aussie referee Jarred Gillett did show 4 cards last Saturday, the game was on the brink of boiling over largely thanks to Brighton (and Joel Veltman’s) hatred of former player Marc Cucurella. Cucu, cucurella he drink Estrella 🍺 

There were 46 tackles in the match with Brighton making 30 of them & Tariq Lamptey registering 9 of those himself. A massive increase in the 17.2 that Chelsea’s opponents are averaging against them in the Premier League so far this term. On the other hand, Brighton’s opponents are averaging 20.2 tackles against them in the PL this season, which Chelsea fell shy of with only 16 in the cup tie. Brighton rank 9th for tackles in the league with 17.6 per game, meanwhile, Chelsea rank 19th in the league only making 15.5 tackles per game, only Manchester City make fewer. Despite this, Chelsea made 22 tackles in the league fixture back in September, the same game Cole Palmer scored 4 goals. Bet365’s super boost has Cole Palmer to have a shot on target at evens… 🏦 

Will familiarity breed contempt between the two sides, or will Maresca’s baldy tactico head be happy with 68% possession and the ghost of Adrian Mutu upfront due to their injuries in the centre-forward position? 🇷🇴 

It’s 7.00 (6/1) for a repeat of Saturday night’s 45+ tackles, or 1.80 (4/5) if you prefer the more conservative approach of Over 35.5 tackles. Chelsea’s low tackle numbers aren’t exactly filling me with confidence, so, logically, I’ll be punting a couple of longer shots with small stakes incase Noni Madueke isn’t wearing Timberlands tonight.

MONTOYA LOTS OF TACKLES POR FAVOR 🙏 

Punts:

• Over 20.5 Tackles for Brighton & Over 19.5 Tackles for Chelsea @ 6.50 (11/2) - Bet365

• Over 22.5 Tackles for Brighton & Over 21.5 Tackles for Chelsea @ 17.00 (16/1) - Bet365

• Over 24.5 Tackles for Brighton & Over 23.5 Tackles for Chelsea @ 41.00 (40/1) - Bet365

💰 Punt: Nathaniel Phillips Over 0.5 Shots & Over 1.5 Shots
📗 Bookie: Bet365
🎲 Odds: 2.25 (5/4) & 7.00 (6/1)
⚽️ Game: QPR vs. Derby

LOVE NAT PHILLIPS is in the air 💕 

So is pretty much every defender on the pitch in tonight’s Championship action. QPR defender Jimmy Dunne is his sides second top scorer, averaging 1.3 shots per game whilst fellow R’s defender and Southampton loanee has registered 8 shots in 6 starts since joining in January. You’d imagine if his shooting volume continues, the former Peterborough defender will get his name on the scoresheet before long, best priced 25/1 to do so tonight but he’d have to get the better of Derby’s BFG backline.

Derby’s reliance on set-pieces is well documented although they have lost top spot for goals scored from them to Luton Town. The loss of Eiran Cashin to Brighton led to the return of Matt Clarke from Middlesbrough and arrival of Norwegian defender Sondre Langas from Viking. The pair have formed a backline with Nathaniel Phillips in the past 2 games consisting of big, ugly, horrible bastards.

Phillips has had 15 shots in 13 Championship starts this season, Langas averaged 0.6 shots per game in the Eliteserien and Matt Clarke has a career average of 0.8 shots per90, having already had 2 shots vs. Sheffield United the other week despite blanking in the last two games.

The arrival of John Eustace from Blackburn may see a change in formation as he largely used a back 4 during his time at Ewood Park.

Since the turn of the year, opposition defenders have been getting plenty of shots off vs. QPR

• Watford (H) - Mattie Pollock 1 shot & Ryan Porteous 2 shots

• Luton (H) - Mark McGuinness 4 shots and a HEADED goal

• Leicester (A) - Wout Faes 1 shot and a goal

• Plymouth (A) - Victor Palsson 1 shot

• Hull (A) - Alfie Jones 1 shot

• Sheffield Wednesday (H) - Michael Ihiekwe 2 shots

• Millwall (A) - No shots from opposition CB

• Blackburn (H) - No shots from opposition CB

• Coventry (A) - Bobby Thomas 2 shots and a HEADED goal

Punts:

• Nathaniel Phillips - Over 0.5 Shots @ 2.25 (5/4) - Bet365

• Nathaniel Phillips - Over 1.5 Shots @ 7.00 (6/1) - Bet365

• Nathaniel Phillips Anytime Goalscorer @ 29.00 (28/1) - SkyBet

Bet365 do void if your player doesn’t start for singles but once team news is confirmed I’ll probably have a dabble on the Derby centre-backs, e.g. Matt Clarke & Nat Phillips Over 1.5 Shots each is priced at 41.00 (40/1) if they both start. 4/1 for a shot each or 325/1 for 3 shots each, I will love it and I think I deserve it.

Scenes like this when Derby have a set-piece please Nathaniel and Matthew… 😆