Boro right-back Tommy Smith has picked up 68 yellow cards in 326 appearances since the start of the 2013/14 season, averaging 1.8 tackles and just under a foul (0.9) on average per game.

Suppose the former Huddersfield & Stoke defender does get the nod in the right-back position for Saturday’s lunchtime kick-off on Wearside. In that case, he’ll be responsible for stopping arguably the Championship’s best player this season, Jack Clarke. The Sunderland winger has been fouled 27 times in the opening 10 games of the season, an average of 2.7 times per game. 2+2 is 4 - 1 that’s 3 quick maths.

My bet is the 4.00 (3/1) on offer with SkyBet for Tommy Smith to be carded. The full-back will be dealing with one of the league's most fouled players, and the added spice of a somewhat local ‘derby’ will hopefully see Jarred Gillett happy to dish out a card or two more than usual.

I’ll probably be looking at making some sort of filthy degenerate player card multiple when the line-ups are out. Niall Huggins playing right-back and scoring from the position in midweek has (slightly) put me off backing him for a card, if he was to start left-back where he had been playing before the Watford game and was marking Isaiah Jones, the 7/1 available with SkyBet could be an absolute gift.

Failing that, Trai Hume at left back is still very backable at 4/1 and makes a lovely double with Tommy Smith at 18/1 on William Hill. Isaiah Jones himself is best priced at 3/1 as a single and before you know it there’s a 75/1 treble placed on your nan’s William Hill account.

#CheekyPunts

• Tommy Smith & Trai Hume To Be Carded @ 19.00 (18/1) - William Hill

• Tommy Smith, Trai Hume & Isaiah Jones To Be Carded @ 76.00 (75/1) - William Hill

Why am I betting on a defender who’s had 64 shots in the past 10 years?

I don’t know.

Tim Ream’s only shot in the first half of a dozen PL games this term resulted in Fulham’s only goal in a 5-1 drubbing away at reigning champions Manchester City. Captain America is clinical, 1 shot 1 goal!

The bet is based around Sheffield Utd’s inability to defend set-pieces, which was very apparent in their embarrassing 8-0 defeat to Newcastle. The following are the centre-back shot totals vs Sheffield Utd so far this season:

• 12/08/23 - Crystal Palace: Guehi (1) & Andersen (2)

• 18/08/23 - Nottingham Forest: Boly (2), Worrall (2) & McKenna (1)

• 27/08/23 - Manchester City: Ake (1) & Dias (1)

• 02/09/23 - Everton: Branthwaite (0) & Tarkowski (0)

• 16/09/23 - Tottenham: Romero (2) & van de Ven (0)

• 24/09/23 - West Ham: Aguerd (2) & Zouma (0)

So, 9/13 opposition centre-backs so far have had a shot vs. Sheffield United in the league. Tim Ream’s hardly Bob Lee Swagger when it comes to shooting but I fancy him to get his ponytail on the end of a corner or two on Saturday afternoon, especially at odds of 3.75 (11/4) for 1+ Shots with SkyBet. 

#CheekyPunts

• Tim Ream 2+ Total Shots @ 26.00 (25/1) - SkyBet

• Tim Ream 2+ Shots & Issa Diop 2+ Shots @ 151.00 (150/1) - SkyBet

Manchester United’s new Moroccan midfielder, or rather, left-back almost wins as many fouls as he commits per game. The Fiorentina loanee has a career average of drawing fouls at 1.8 times per 90 minutes played and his fouls committed stands at 2.2 using the same metric. Despite this, there’s a huge disparity in price between the two markets on SkyBet.

If you were to bet on the Moroccan to commit 2 or more fouls you’re getting quoted a price of 1.53 (8/15). However, if you delve into the ‘NEW: Player Fouls Won’ market with the same bookie, they’re offering 4.33 (10/3) for the Moroccan to be fouled 2 or more times. It’s a bet that has won in 2 of his 3 starts so far for the Red Devils.

• 26/09/23 - Crystal Palace (EFL Cup) - Was fouled 3 times

• 30/09/23 - Crystal Palace (EPL) - Was fouled 0 times

• 03/10/23 - Galatasaray (UCL) - Was fouled 3 times

When defending, he’ll likely be dealing with Bryan Mbeumo who often runs the channels, Mbeumo is averaging 1.3 fouls per game so far this season. On the other hand, when in possession, Amrabat has been stepping into his usual midfield role and will face the likes of Christian Norgaard and Mathias Jensen who are both averaging a foul each per game thus far.

#CheekyPunts

• Sofyan Amrabat To Win 3+ Fouls @ 11.00 (10/1) - SkyBet

• Sofyan Amrabat To Win 4+ Fouls @ 41.00 (40/1) - SkyBet

The loss of Pervis Estupiñán through injury has caused some defensive problems for Roberto De Zerbi and his Brighton side. It’s a position they failed to strengthen in depth during the summer transfer window and will need some square pegs in round holes whilst the Ecuadorian works his way back to full health.

Tariq Lamptey filled the void in their Europa League clash with Marseille and seemed to struggle first half but grew into the position the more the game went on. He may be the number-one choice but I have a feeling we could see Igor Julio fill the left-back void at some point. De Zerbi himself is quoted as saying “We can play in that position with Lamptey, Igor.” when speaking about Estupiñán’s injury timescale.

If the Italian manager does favour Igor Julio on Sunday, he’ll be up against the Egyptian king Mohammed Salah. Anytime you get a decent price on an opposition left-back against Salah for a couple of tackles you’re taking it blind without even looking any further into boring stats. Shoot first and ask questions later. Exactly what I’ve done here!

In the 8 games he’s played as a left-back during his career at SPAL & Fiorentina, Igor Julio averaged 1.9 tackles per 90 minutes. Moreover, in the 106 games WhoScored has data on to date, the Brazilian averages 1.8 tackles per 90 minutes, predominantly as a central defender.

Mo Salah averages 3.6 dribbles per 90 with 1.8 of those being unsuccessful and the Egyptian is dispossessed 2.5 times per 90 mins on average. My recommended punt: Igor Julio 3+ Tackles @ 3.50 (5/2) - SkyBet.

Feel free to take any or all of the following:

• Igor Julio 2+ Tackles @ 1.83 (5/6) - SkyBet

• Igor Julio 3+ Tackles @ 3.50 (5/2) - SkyBet

• Igor Julio 4+ Tackles @ 8.00 (7/1) - SkyBet

🇬🇧 Yer Da’s Brexit Acca:

Blackburn To Win
Barnsley To Win
Walsall To Win
Fulham To Win and over 1.5 Goals
Derby To Win and over 2.5 Goals

Pays out at 64.00 (63/1) with Bet365.